Bad Reports All Over

Yesterday, dozens (perhaps hundreds) of newspapers ran with an article stating that scientists had discovered why the bird flu did not pass from human to human, and suggested concerns over the virus in man were overblown.

While all of this may sound great, there is nothing in this report that we didn't already know. Or at least, strongly suspect.

We've known the virus's ability to pass H2H is very limited. And that it starts deep in the lungs, not the upper respiratory tract, as with most influenzas. We've know it was attuned to avian receptors, not human receptors. And that it would have to mutate before it could go pandemic.

Absolutely nothing has changed here. The media has latched on to a story, and has blown it out of proportion.

That isn't to say this study is not without value. And that there isn't at least a little hope in it. There is.

This reports tells us, that until a crucial mutation occurs, the likelihood of catching this disease from wild birds is very small. Good news, given the expectation that avian flu will arrive in migratory birds this summer in the U.S. Unless you hunt birds, and clean them, or somehow come in close contact with our feathered flu carriers, you are pretty safe.

But we've known that. In the past 3 years, with millions of birds infected, less than 200 humans have contracted the disease. Many thousands of people have worked with infected poultry, yet few have been infected.

This report also explains why early tests for avian flu, taken with nasal and mouth swabs, have turned out negative. This despite the fact that many of these patients go on to die, and we find out later that they did, indeed, have H5N1. The virus doesn't like the cells of the mouth and nose! So it doesn't reside there.

This certainly isn't good news. It means that the quick and dirty testing going on in many parts of the world simply won't pick up the disease. But once again, we've known that, too.

The only question that is really pertinent is: Can this virus mutate to have an affinitity to human receptors?

And the only answer we have is, it hasn't yet.

This report does nothing to suggest, in anyway, how the virus may mutate in the future. What we do know is, the virus is mutating, and at an alarming rate. It is closer today to a H2H virus than it was 2 years ago. And the opportunities for it to mutate, grow each day.

Is there some natural barrier, some genetic roadblock, that can prevent this virus from obtaining the ability to pass from man to man? History tells us that other avian virus's have made this leap, so it seems a bit optimistic to believe this one can't.

But there are subtle, tho important differences between words like can't and won't. Right now, we don't know if it will happen. It may not. We may get lucky. But there is no reason to believe it can't.

And that, is worrisome indeed.