Shaken and Stirred

The big news over the past 24 hours is, of course, the confirmation of Bird Flu in a mute swan in the UK. Fife, Scotland, to be precise. Now for my American readers, Scotland is to the north of England, and is home to roughly 5 million people.

While this should come as no surprise, as Bird Flu has raced across the E.U. over the past few months, our British friends are taken aback by these developments a bit.

The response, early on, to the discovery of this dead swan was . . . shall we say, slightly less than urgent. It apparently took more than 24 hours, and a number of phone calls, before the authorities came out to pick up the bird. Testing was delayed because the lab was closed for the weekend. And a total of 8 days transpired before any news was released regarding the H5N1 infection.

British reserve is an admirable trait, but one must wonder exactly how far to carry it.

Today, is a different story. The British press is filled with stories, not all favorable; about how all this was handled. Assurances are being made that people are not in danger, always with the caveat that if the virus mutates, they may have to reassess that position.

Insurance actuaries have been interviewed, and have stated the odds of being infected by the H5N1 virus from a bird is 100 million to 1.

Citizens have been assured that poultry is safe to eat, if cooked to 168 degrees. Little is said about the dangers of handling raw chicken, however.

And in the Guardian today, a long article regarding the latest developments ended with this piece of reassurance.

The government has come up with a plan for mass evacuation of major cities if the strain mutates and passes from human to human.

No mention of where tens of millions of people will go, when ordered to leave the major cities, but I'm sure they are working on that as we speak. Undoubtedly every bed & breakfast in the countryside will be at full capacity.

While our good friends across the pond have gotten a shakey start with this, I suspect they will persevere. They, after all, endured the 1666 Fire of London and the plague that came before it, the Battle for Britain (arguably their finest hour), the blitz of V1 and V2 rockets, and even the Spice girls.

One has to feel they will contend with this threat as well. At least as long as it remains a disease of birds.

For any Americans who view the stumble at the starting block among British officials as humorous, I would recomend waiting until we see how well our officials do when faced with the new reality.

Bird Flu is coming to America.

And our politicians are every bit as capable of bungling as those of any other country.

For now, the big question is: How did this virus arrive? A mute swan is not considered a migratory bird. It would seem that the virus was a present left by another feathered vector.

And that means that the infection probably extends beyond this solitary case.