This is not a Time for Panic
There will be plenty of time for that, later.
Meanwhile, the government of the UK is doing as much damage control as possible in the face of the confirmation of bird flu in Scotland. Today we learn, six dead swans in Ulster are being tested for H5N1, results may be available later today.
The headlines, and media spin, on this are fascinating. And not wholly effective. It seems that the press is a bit dubious of the government's efforts to proclaim all is well.
A few headlines from the English Press:
PUBLIC HEALTH IS TOP PRIORITY - The Irish News
TIME FOR CALM AS SCOTLAND'S FARMERS FACE UP TO YET ANOTHER FOOD SCARE - The Press & Journal
'No bird flu crisis', top scientist - ICScotland
BIRD FLU HAS LANDED - Fife Online
DEADLY BIRD FLU ZONE SET UP - Reuters
DON'T PANIC, SAY POULTRY FAMERS - Hull Daily Mail
One could say that the public is receiving decidedly mixed messages here. On one hand you have DEADLY BIRD FLU ZONE and on the other you have NO BIRD FLU CRISIS. And of course, the public is reminded that their safety is of paramount importance.
A lot is at stake here. The poultry industry is big in the UK, and will take a hit, even if this virus fails to spread. Public confidence in poultry will wane, regardless of the spin. Millions of pounds are at stake.
And for now, the spin is not that far off. As long as H5N1 remains a bird disease, the damage will be limited, and the threat to human safety low. But this virus may well become endemic in the wildlife in the UK, and around the world, and that has many people worried.
Today, this is mostly an economic crisis. But that will change if the virus mutates. It was only a week ago that the British press ran articles about a worst case scenario where 700,000 would die in the UK alone, and conjured up images of mass burials.
Timing, is everything.
Three million doses of vaccine have been ordered to protect NHS workers. Of course, it is for an older version of the H5N1 virus, and may need to be given at doses much higher than orginally thought. So it may not be effective at all.
Presumably, the 3 million doses are calculated at the standard 15ug shot. We now know it takes 180ug of the vaccine to have a 50% response. So they may only have 1/12th the number of doses originally believed.
Gleaning details from newspaper reports is always dangerous. Reporters rarely ask the salient questions. And we are left with more hyperbole than substance.
For now, all we really know is the virus has arrived in the UK. And the officials are in containment mode. Of the virus, of the vectors, and of public opinion.
