Assurances that bird flu poses no immediate threat to humans have been repeatedly broadcast thru the news media over the past week. Officials in high places, both here in the United States and in Europe have gone to great lengths to stress that a pandemic is not inevitable. And we are reminded not to panic.
One would be hard pressed to take issue with these statements, as they are all true. But I will do what I can.
I'd like a definition of immediate threat. It's a simple request, really. What exactly does no immediate threat mean? If we don't have a definition, then the statement is useless.
I would assume that immediate threat refers to today, and probably tomorrow, and perhaps next week, too. But it is unclear. In a court of law, in many places, you can use lethal force to defend yourself against an immediate threat, but you can't go back an hour later, and kill someone. So legally, immediate seems to mean right now. Not an hour from now.
But let's give the good folks in charge of bird flu spin a little leeway. Let's assume they mean not in the next couple of weeks. Further out, who knows? Perhaps they mean months? I really can't tell from their statements. It sounds reassuring, but it means little.
And I know of no reputable scientist who has stated that bird flu is an immediate threat. None. All of those who are worried about the H5N1 virus see it as a threat for a pandemic sometime in the future. Again, a vague timeframe. Maybe this year, maybe next.
The other catch phrase we keep hearing is that a pandemic is not inevitable.
The most aggressive of the avian flu Cassandra’s, Dr. Robert Webster, only gives it a 50/50 chance of becoming a pandemic. Most scientists are either unwilling to give it a number, or talk in terms of 10% to 50% chance of it happening.
No one that I've seen has said a pandemic is inevitable.
And of course, the mantra of Do Not Panic is intoned ad nauseum. Have you seen any panic? I haven't. I've barely seen any concern except among a select few who are in touch with the issue. And none of them are panicking. Sure, some are buying up extra groceries, but that's exactly what the government websites are telling us to do. All of us.
Frankly, we could use a little creative panic.
Each year before Hurricane season, we are encouraged to stock up on food, water, batteries, etc. Yet each year, 24 hours before a storm threatens the coastline, tens of thousands of people rush to the store to clean out the shelves. It is a madhouse, and many people can’t get what they need at the last minute. Now that’s panic.
And on this 100th anniversary of the great San Francisco earthquake, a recent survey shows that only 6% of the residents of that city have made any preparations for another earthquake, despite continual warnings that another could occur at any time. Sounds like they could use a little proactive concern, themselves.
What goes on here?
Why are scientists and government officials denying things that have never been stated? Why are they making up rumors, only to quash them? These are straw man arguments. They have created positions that don't exist, and then knock them down with reassuring words. And their words have little or no meaning.
Simply put, the only thing that the authorities fear more than a killer pandemic is that the public start thinking and acting like one is coming.
We might spend our money on lifesaving food supplies instead of that new plasma screen television. We might forego dinner and a movie this week in order to buy that solar powered short wave radio. The sales of chickens and egg products might plummet. And worst of all, people might start moving their money out of the stock market, and putting it into something a little less volatile.
And we simply can’t have that.
It would be bad for the economy. And bad for morale. Particularly in corporate boardrooms around the world. Better to let the people sleep in ignorance. If a pandemic breaks out, they will tell us. Probably from their well stocked underground bunkers. The public would have a few days, hopefully, to prepare.
And while all of these placating statements are issued, governments around the world are spending billions preparing for a non-immediate threat, a non-inevitable pandemic.
Emergency services are holding drills. Coroners are buying up body bags and scouting out areas for mass casualty morgues and mass graves. Roche laboratories are selling Tamiflu to governments by the billions. And scientists are working to try to make an ineffective vaccine at least partially useful.
If there’s panic anywhere, it’s in the government.
We’ve already been told that if a pandemic happens, the federal government will be unable to help local communities. Local communities, for the most part, are waiting for guidance from the federal government. It’s a catch-22. And while there is much wailing and gnashing of teeth, little is actually getting done.
The only one that can really prepare effectively is the individual. And sending a signal that a pandemic is unlikely, or a long way off, deprives all but the most cynical flu watchers of an opportunity to prepare.
The prospects for a pandemic have not changed. It is somewhere between possible and probable. It is not inevitable. And it could start anytime. Today, tomorrow, next month, or next year. No one knows.
I’m still holding at a 30% chance before the end of the year. Which means, in my mind, there’s a 70% chance it will not happen. Next year, I think the odds go up. Maybe to a 50/50 chance.
But anyone who waits for an official announcement from the government that it is, indeed, time to panic, will find it is far too late at that point.
Far too late, indeed.
