# 549
One of the major concerns during a pandemic is what happens when various sectors of the economy are impacted. Absenteeism is expect to run at 40%, based just on those who are ill, or caring for someone who is ill.
That number assumes that healthy will report to work.
Informal polling of people I've done tells me that a good number of people may simply refuse to go to work, for fear of contracting the virus, and bringing it home to their families. The 40% absenteeism rate may be optimistic.
As a nation, we rely heavily on the daily delivery of goods via trucking companies. Should a pandemic erode that capability, or should restrictions be placed on the interstate movement of people or materials, then almost immediately we'd see a major impact on what goods are available.
The American Trucking Association (ATA) has put out an article on what effects a trucking shutdown would cause, whether it was due to a terrorist strike, a natural disaster, or a pandemic. It is, admittedly, designed to show how important the trucking industry is to the nation, so this article is not without an agenda.
The entire article runs 9 pages, and is definitely worth reading. This is a PDF file and requires the Adobe reader. At the bottom they have a summary of the cascading effects of a trucking shutdown, most of which are detailed in the text of the article.
When Trucks Stop, America Stops
A Timeline Showing the Deterioration of Major Industries Following a Truck Stoppage
The first 24 hours
• Delivery of medical supplies to the affected area will cease.
• Hospitals will run out of basic supplies such as syringes and catheters within hours. Radiopharmaceuticals will deteriorate and become unusable.
• Service stations will begin to run out of fuel.
• Manufacturers using just-in-time manufacturing will develop component shortages.
• U.S. mail and other package delivery will cease.
Within one day
• Food shortages will begin to develop.
• Automobile fuel availability and delivery will dwindle, leading to skyrocketing
prices and long lines at the gas pumps.
• Without manufacturing components and trucks for product delivery, assembly lines will shut down, putting thousands out of work.
Within two to three days
• Food shortages will escalate, especially in the face of hoarding and consumer panic.
• Supplies of essentials—such as bottled water, powdered milk, and canned meat—at major retailers will disappear.
• ATMs will run out of cash and banks will be unable to process transactions.
• Service stations will completely run out of fuel for autos and trucks.
• Garbage will start piling up in urban and suburban areas.
• Container ships will sit idle in ports and rail transport will be disrupted, eventually coming to a standstill.
Within a week
• Automobile travel will cease due to the lack of fuel. Without autos and busses, many people will not be able to get to work, shop for groceries, or access medical care.
• Hospitals will begin to exhaust oxygen supplies.
Within two weeks
• The nation’s clean water supply will begin to run dry.
Within four weeks
• The nation will exhaust its clean water supply and water will be safe for drinking only after boiling. As a result gastrointestinal illnesses will increase, further taxing an already weakened health care system.
As a point of clarification, the potable water supply problem referenced above would be caused by a cessation of deliveries of chemicals to municipal water suppliers, who only keep a week or two of chlorine on hand, which would cause untreated water to flow to homes.
I can't vouch for the accuracy of the numbers in this article, except to say they appear to be in the ballpark. A disruption of trucking for more than a few days would have a chilling effect on all of our lives.
Our Just-in-time inventory and delivery system has provided businesses a way to deliver goods at a lower cost, and has maximized profits. But it also leaves us open to severe disruptions should they be interrupted.
The ATA has a pandemic planning page, geared specifically to those in the trucking industry. You can access it here. It is well worth visiting.
Kudos to the Trucking Industry for taking this threat seriously, and for providing this information.
