# 623
The WPRO (Regional Office Western Pacific) of the WHO (World Health Organization) is conducting Operation Panstop 2007, an exercise to help refine their methods should the need arise to contain a pandemic.
On the WHO website they have a very informative PDF file which is basically a slide show presentation, 13 pages in length, describing how they would go about such a containment operation.
Quite admirably, they are very realistic when they describe the limitations they have in attempting to stop a pandemic outbreak. It's never been tried before, and success is not guaranteed.
I've lifted a few snapshots from the PDF file, but strongly recommend interested readers download the entire file. It is about a 330K download. Click on any graphic for a larger view.
The idea is relatively simple. If you can get to a limited outbreak early enough, impose a Tamiflu `blanket', and restrict the movement of potentially infected people, you may have a chance of stopping a pandemic.
For this to happen, everything has to go just right. The WHO has to be notified very early, the virus must not have a high R0 number (reproduction number), the outbreak must be in a limited geographic area, and antivirals and quarantines must be imposed.
This graphic illustrates that containment may not be possible if the number of cases is large, or if they are geographically scattered.
The R0 number (pronounced R-naught), indicates how rapidly the virus is spread. If an infected person, on average,passes the virus on to only one other person, the R0 number 1.0 If each infected person passes the virus on to three people, the R0 number is 3.0
This graphic only extrapolates out 10 days. After 15 days, with an R0 of 1.0, you'd have 6 infected individuals. On Day 18, you'd have 7, and on day 21 you'd have 8.
If the R0 number is 3.0, after 15 days, you'd have 364 infections. Three days after that, you are over 1,000. And three days after that, at the 21 day mark, you'd have more than 3,000.
The Spanish Flu of 1918 is thought to have had an R0 number between 1.7 and 2.5. More than enough to spread around the world in a matter of months.
This document also states that:
Containment of an outbreak in a rural setting is far more likely to succeed than in a highly populated area.
In order to succeed, the WHO must be notified within 16 days of the index case.
Today, Margaret Chan of the WHO called for more transparency, and faster reporting by member nations of avian flu cases. Hopefully nations will comply.
While the odds may not be favorable to contain a pandemic, even slowing the spread, or delaying the inevitable is worth attempting.
Should a pandemic strain develop, this may be our last best chance to avert a disaster.
