# 622
An interesting look at a training exercise going on in Manila, and in a number of S.E. Asian countries today.
WHO simulates bird flu pandemic to test Asia readiness
MANILA, Philippines (AP): Gathered around a conference table facing a large screen, World Health Organization officials Monday moved to stop in its tracks a mock bird flu pandemic emerging in Cambodia.
In the two-day "Panstop 2007" training exercise, the H5N1 virus has mutated into a strain easily spread among humans. The simulated situation tests for the first time the WHO's ability to rapidly avert a pandemic, officials said.
The drill involved officials at the WHO Western Pacific regional headquarters in Manila talking by phone with counterparts in Cambodian, Singapore, Indonesia and Japan.
As of mid-morning, four out of five people infected with the virus in the mock scenario were dead, and WHO Cambodia personnel were in the field conducting an investigation, said Dr. Takeshi Kasai, WHO regional adviser for communicable disease,surveillance and response.
Officials were rushing to send influenza drug Tamiflu and protective gear, like goggles and masks, from a Japan-donated stockpile in Singapore to the Cambodian capital Phnom Penh.
At least 24,000 Tamiflu courses were needed, and the WHO Manila office could only send 3,000 courses. It asked for the rest to be flown from the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations' stockpile in Singapore.
"The exercise is going very well. We're very early in the scenario," exercise director Paul Cox told reporters. "As the exercise unfolds, things will get a little bit more complicated and a little bit more difficult."
While another bird flu drill was conducted last month by six countries in Cambodia, "Panstop 2007" was the first WHO bird flu drill and the first-ever exercise by anyone on rapidly containing a pandemic, Cox said.
An assessment of how quickly authorities responded will be made after the drill is completed on Tuesday, he added.
"Containment of an influenza pandemic has never been attempted before, and we cannot be sure if it will work," Shigeru Omi, the WHO regional director for the Western Pacific, said in a statement. "But this exercise will provide us with valuable insight into what needs to be done if a crisis situation should emerge." (**)
No one knows, of course, if a pandemic can be contained. The hope is, that if an outbreak is reported early enough, quarantines and a Tamiflu `blanket' might quash an outbreak. There are many factors involved, and while the odds may be against health officials, it is certainly worth trying.
Of particular interest is the scenario where 4 out of 5 patients had already died. While this mirrors the current fatality rate in Indonesia (78%), it is a rare admission that a pandemic could potentially exact that sort of toll.
Most governments, including the United States, are operating under the assumption of a 2% fatality rate.
The ultimate fatality rate of a pandemic is unknowable in advance. Scientists hope that any virus that mutates would trade lethality for transmissibility, but admit there are no guarantees that would happen.
With luck, we will hear more on how this exercise went in the coming days.
