# 621
While we continue to see articles and opinion pieces surfacing calling into question whether avian flu poses a threat, the WHO (World Health Organization) and the FAO (UN Food and Agriculture Organization) continue to sound the warning not to become complacent.
Bird flu may spread from Indonesia, Egypt, Nigeria: FAO
MILAN (Reuters) - The deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu may spread from Indonesia, Egypt and Nigeria to other countries as it continues to circulate in Africa and Asia, the U.N.'s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said on Monday.
"The risk of a pandemic will be with us for the foreseeable future," said the United Nations body's chief veterinary officer Joseph Domenech, reiterating calls for global efforts to contain the disease.
Egypt, Indonesia and Nigeria have not been able to contain the disease, effectively making them reservoirs of the virus for possible spread to other countries, the FAO said in a statement.
Last week Indonesia announced five new deaths from bird flu, taking its reported human death toll from the H5N1 virus to 71, the highest in the world. Egypt has 32 human bird flu cases, the highest outside Asia, with 13 people dead since 2006.
Avian Flu remains mainly a bird virus, but experts fear that if the H5N1 strain mutated into a form easily transmitted from person to person it could sweep the world, killing millions.
Prepare for bird flu pandemic, says WHO chief
World Health Organisation (WHO) chief Margaret Chan on Monday urged governments to prepare for a bird flu pandemic, describing it as a certainty although the timing and severity was unknown.
"The next pandemic will certainly happen," the director-general told a news conference after a forum in Singapore on improving health security worldwide.
But she noted that "nobody can predict the timing and nobody can predict whether it's going to be a severe or mild pandemic."She also said no scientist can predict which avian inluenza virus will spark a pandemic, but added that the H5N1 strain has been prominent over the past several years.
"So my advice to all member states is to maintain vigilance, to prepare for the pandemic. One thing we know for certain is any country that is prepared will see less damage," Chan said.
There are, admittedly, some scientists who doubt that the H5N1 virus will ever acquire pandemic capability, since it hasn't in the 10 years since it first showed up in Hong Kong. This is a minority view, however.
We are an impatient species, prone to ignore threats that fail to materialize immediately. For decades many people warned what would happen to New Orleans should a strong hurricane strike that city. For decades hurricanes missed the city, and many decided the fears were overblown.
But of course the odds caught up with that city when Katrina paid a visit.
No one knows with any certainty when the next pandemic will strike, or even if the H5N1 virus will be the culprit. But we do know that pandemics have happened in the past, and surely will happen again.
It's just a matter of time.
