Just A Phase We're Going Through
# 734
The Chart above, taken from the WHO (World Health Organization) shows the 6 pandemic alert phases. We are currently at pandemic alert level III, and have been since late in 2005.
The next phase is Phase IV, and that would indicate that increased H2H (Human to Human) transmission is occurring, taking us one step closer to a pandemic. Beyond that is Phase V, where significant H2H transmission is occurring, and then finally Phase VI, which means a pandemic is underway.
What we don't know, and have no way of knowing, is whether or not the H5N1 virus will acquire the ability to easily transmit between humans, and force us to go to phase IV or beyond. It is still possible that the H5N1 virus will never acquire this ability.
It is even possible we will see the pandemic phase ratcheted down to alert level II, or even I, if the H5N1 virus should somehow disappear. Today, however, that seems unlikely.
Many scientists fear the H5N1 virus will someday make this jump, and so we watch carefully for signs that it has occurred. Our first indication will likely be large clusters of cases somewhere in the world. The newshounds on the Internet, who spend hours each day translating local media reports, are very likely to be among the first to spot this change.
Once large clusters are noticed, it may take some time to confirm that they are, indeed, the result of H2H transmission. There will be attempts to contain the spread, using quarantines and antivirals. This would be a time of uncertainty. We will have days, perhaps weeks, where we won't know if that is successful.
If that happens, we honestly don't know how long it will take to go from our current phase III, to phase VI, a full blown pandemic.
We could be talking days, weeks, or if we are extremely lucky, perhaps even months.
But we certainly can't count on months.
In 1918, the Spanish Flu spread around the world in less than 5 months, and this was before the advent of modern air travel. Today, with a highly mobile society, it is hard to envision the spread taking anywhere near that long.
We may be looking at weeks, not months, for the virus to spread to every corner of the globe. And that has grave implications, should it happen.
Anyone planning on having advance warning, and time to prepare for a pandemic could be caught unawares.
Preparation takes time, and the availability of goods from the supply chain. Both will be in short supply once the pandemic phase is elevated.
Consider if, tomorrow, the Pandemic alert level were raised. One hundred million American families would suddenly awaken to the idea that they need food, water, and medical supplies. And they need them immediately.
The grocery store shelves would be emptied overnight, and the panic buying that would create, would assure that any resupply was wiped out quickly.
Don't believe it?
In December of 1973, the United States was suffering through the first of the oil shocks, and gas prices had tripled. Americans were understandably nervous.
Johnny Carson, the King of Late nite TV made an offhand joke, a week before Christmas that the next shortage congress was worried about was of Toilet Paper. It got a small laugh.
The next morning, millions of Tonight Show fans ran out and cleaned the shelves of all of the available toilet paper. Some people bought shopping cart's full. By noon, there wasn't a roll to be had in most major cities. The supplies were, err, wiped out, so to speak.
That night, Johnny Carson went on the air to explain, and apologize. There was no shortage, it was all a joke. Only one problem: Now there was a shortage. As soon as new supplies were delivered and put on the shelves, they were snapped up by worried buyers. People were hoarding toilet paper out of fear, and the shortage continued.
Even though the supply chain was unbroken, it took 3 weeks before normalcy returned. And all of this took place back when stores actually had stockrooms, and didn't rely on just-in-time inventory restocking.
Multiply this scenario a hundred times, and you'd have some idea of what preparing will be like, once the alert level is raised.
Today, while we remain in phase III, the supply chain can handle a moderately increased level of preparation. If people bought an extra 10% of food each week for a few months, they'd have a full pantry without straining the system.
Those that are prudent enough to do so will find they can sit out of the mad dash for supplies if the alert phase is elevated. Prices today are likely to be far lower than they will be then, providing an additional incentive.
Those that prepare today, before a crisis, reduce the burden on the supply chain for those that haven't prepared, and now must. Advance preparation is good for your family, and for society in general.
We don't all need a basement full of survivalist gear, and two years of freeze dried foods, to endure a pandemic. But every family does need to be prepared to handle a few weeks, or perhaps even months, of an interrupted supply chain.
And that means food, water, prescription medicines you may need, and supplies to treat flu patients in your home.
