# 1451
At least, that's the opinion of Bernard Vallat, director of the OIE. First the article, then some discussion.
H5N1 bird flu virus reassuringly stable: animal health chief
PARIS (AFP) - The H5N1 virus that causes deadly avian flu has proven remarkably stable and action to curb outbreaks of the disease are highly effective, the head of the world's paramount agency for animal health said here Thursday.
Since the end of 2003, mutation of the H5N1 virus so that it can be easily transmissible among humans has been a nightmare for the world health community, raising concerns of a global influenza pandemic that could claim tens of millions of lives.
But Bernard Vallat, director general of the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE), said no evidence of any such genetic shift had emerged.
"We have never seen a virus which has been so stable for so long. Compared to other viruses, it is extremely stable, which minimises the risk of mutation" into a pandemic strain, he told reporters.
Vallat said a system to beef up veterinary surveillance, especially in poor countries, had borne fruit, enabling outbreaks of H5N1 in poultry flocks to be identified and swiftly eradicated.
"It took two years for our voice to be heard," Vallat said. "If we had been heard before, the virus would have been stopped in its tracks."
Vallat said, though, "there are three countries, Indonesia, Egypt and to a lesser degree Nigeria, where the disease is endemic, and this creates reservoirs from which it can bounce back."
"If we could eradicate the virus in those countries, the problem of a pandemic from Asian H5N1 would be resolved," said Vallat.
I find Mr. Vallets statements curious, since outbreaks this past year in Europe, the Middle East, and South East Asia all point to this virus gaining a better foothold across a wide geographic area.
The truth is, we have only a poor idea of the real status of bird flu in places like Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos, Pakistan, China, and Bangladesh.
Iran states they have no bird flu, but reports continue to drift out of that region suggesting otherwise. Saudi Arabia obviously has a problem, and no doubt, so do many of its neighbors. Few African nations are reporting bird flu, but then, very few actually have a surveillance program in place.
Just because bird flu outbreaks aren't being reported, that doesn't mean they aren't happening. There are simply too many places where adequate surveillance and reporting don't take place.
And a pandemic could start anywhere the virus is present.
Sure, Indonesia and Egypt are likely candidates based simply on the number of human and bird infections there, but they aren't the only ones. A pandemic could just as easily begin in Pakistan or Bangladesh, or perhaps someplace like Myanmar from where we get very little information.
Is it `reassuring' that the virus hasn't mutated yet?
Sure, since if it had, we'd be in the middle of a pandemic. But past performance is no predictor of future events.
Up until the moment Spanish Flu broke out, the H1N1 virus had pretty much behaved itself too.
We don't know how long it takes for an avian virus to adapt to human hosts. The H5N1 virus has been working at it for a decade, with limited success. It's possible it will never become a `humanized' virus.
Or it could happen tomorrow.
So for now, any reports of H5N1's demise would seem a bit premature.
