# 1450
According to an oft reported story, the next pandemic could cost the world's economy up to $2 Trillion Dollars.
The operative word here, of course, is `could'.
The $2 Trillion dollar number promulgated by the World Bank is based on a specific scenario. But more on that after this article on Dr. David Nabarro's message to the nations of the world.
Prepare for big flu pandemic economic hit, U.N. says
Thu 10 Jan 2008, 11:18 GMT
LONDON (Reuters) - Governments around the world need to do more to prepare for the dramatic economic impact of the next flu pandemic, the United Nations influenza coordinator said on Thursday.
David Nabarro said his team had recently collected information from nearly 150 countries to see how prepared they were for a pandemic and the picture was mixed.
"Most countries have now focused on pandemic as a potential cause of catastrophe and have done some planning. But the quality of the plans is patchy and too few of them pay attention to economic and social consequences," he told BBC radio.
"The economic consequences could be up to $2 trillion (1 trillion pounds) -- up to 5 percent of global GDP removed," he said, reiterating previous World Bank and UN estimates.
Nabarro will deliver a lecture at the London School of Economics later on Thursday on the global state of preparedness for any pandemic, which could be triggered by bird flu.
The current H5N1 form of bird flu is mainly an animal disease, but experts fear it might mutate into a strain that could spread easily between people, causing a pandemic which could kill millions.
Two Trillion dollars is a lot of money.
Of course, what's missing from this article are the assumptions used to reach this number. While stated as if it were writ in stone, this $2 trillion dollar estimate is actually based on a specific scenario.
What, more than a year ago, the World Bank felt was a `worst case scenario'.
The assumptions used were outlined in an article carried by Channel NewsAsia back in September of 2006.
In the worst-case scenario of a flu pandemic, 70 million people - or 1 percent of those infected - could die from it.
And the World Bank says developing countries would be worse hit - with mortality rates being double that of high-income countries.
Jim Adams, Head, World Bank Avian Flu Taskforce, said, "We estimate that a severe pandemic could now cost over 3 percent of the global economy's GNP, because of its impact on trade and economic activity.
"We estimate this could cost, in fact, certainly over $1 trillion and perhaps as high as $2 trillion in the worst-case scenario. So I think the threat, the economic threat, remains real and remains substantial."
Now, 70 million deaths isn't everyone's idea of a worst-case scenario.
Many reputable scientists have spoken of numbers several times higher. If the 1918 Spanish Flu claimed 50 million lives, then based on population increases alone it is reasonable to assume a similar event today would claim 150 million lives.
Double the `worst-case' assumption state above.
Of course the World Bank can be forgiven if their estimates turn out wrong. Divining the cost of the next pandemic is an almost impossible task. There are simply too many variables, too many unknowns.
Suffice to say it will be very, very expensive.
As that venerable sage Yogi Berra once told us, it is always tough making predictions, especially about the future.
