# 2805
Overnight we've been barraged with a number of wire stories about statements made by UN officials regarding the recently spate of human H5N1 bird flu infections out of China.
Those reports vary remarkably in message, tone, and detail.
The AP report is, by far, the most reassuring.
Feb 18, 3:14 AM EST
WHO: China's bird flu cases don't signal pandemic
By TINI TRAN
Associated Press WriterBEIJING (AP) -- China's eight bird flu cases last month do not constitute an immediate public health problem, U.N. health officials said Wednesday, but the country needs to step up its vigilance to combat the disease.
Hans Troedsson, head of the World Health Organization in China, said the H5N1 flu infections, which included five deaths, have followed a historic pattern of increasing during the cold season. About 83 percent of China's 38 total cases since 2003 were reported from November to March, he said.
"Why we don't suspect this is the beginning of a pandemic is that you have these cases geographically distributed and there are no links between them," he said in Beijing. "All of them have been exposed to sick or dead poultry or wet markets, so there is a plausible explanation on how they can be transmitted."
Not the beginning of a pandemic, but the Chinese need to `step up its vigilance to combat the disease'.
Further on down, the article does talk about `concerns', but assures us that the Chinese MOA (Minister of Agriculture) is aware of the issue and is being proactive in solving it.
Like I said, very reassuring.
So you'd hardly believe that the account below, from DPA (Deutsche Presse Agentur), arose from the same news conference.
UN rings alarm bells over bird flu in China
Posted : Wed, 18 Feb 2009 08:35:54 GMT
Beijing - The bird-flu virus is nearly entrenched in China's poultry population and represents a threat to world health, UN experts said Wednesday. "It has the potential for a pandemic," said Hans Troedsson, the World Health Organization's (WHO's) representative in China, which has the world's largest poultry population.
He told journalists in Beijing after China reported five human bird-flu deaths so far this year that health experts were concerned about the breadth and intensity in China of poultry infections of H5N1, the strain of bird flu that can be deadly in humans.
<snip>
"It is posing a pandemic risk," Troedsson said of the bird-flu outbreak in China's poultry.
"No one can escape it," he added. "It will strike the whole world."
Like varying accounts from witnesses to a crime, reporters often come away from press briefings with divergent takes on what was said - or at least, what was important.
This reporter obviously came away with a greater sense of alarm than did the AP reporter - or at least chose to convey that idea in the story.
The problem is, for people who did not attend this news conference, is deciding which version more accurately reflects what was actually said.
One solution is to go with a tie-breaker, like Reuters' report below.
China needs better bird flu surveillance -experts
Wed Feb 18, 2009 6:08am GMT
BEIJING, Feb 18 (Reuters) - China needs to improve its surveillance of the bird flu virus after a recent rise in human cases, but there are no signs the country is on the verge of an epidemic, U.N. experts said on Wednesday.
China reported eight human cases of the H5N1 strain of bird flu in January, five of whom died, which appeared independent of any known case in birds.
Hans Troedsson, the World Health Organisation's China representative, said their risk assessment had not changed following the new cases as it was normal during the winter months.
<snip>
One problem is the lack of reports of bird outbreaks.
"What it tells us is we still have a very serious situation in the agriculture sector," he said. "The virus is well-entrenched and circulating in the environment.
"It is of great concern for us. It's something we are raising, both the WHO and FAO, with the government," Troedsson added, refering to the Food and Agricultural Organisation.
The Reuters report, while containing nowhere near the hyperbole of the DPA account, does concede that UN officials consider the recent bird flu activity in China `very serious' and of `great concern'.
Consistent between all three reports is the statement that there are no signs the country (China) is on the verge of an epidemic.
And based on what we've seen and heard to date, I believe that is true.
Eight widely scattered human cases, out of a population of 1.3 billion, hardly constitutes the start of an epidemic.
What was startling was China's admission of cases, after nearly a year without reporting any.
The truth is, I doubt that anyone (and that includes the Chinese) knows how many H5N1 infections occur every month in that country.
Not everyone who gets sick or dies from pneumonia is tested for the virus.
In order to find cases, you have to actively look for them.
Getting good, solid, and consistent surveillance is a problem in all of the bird flu afflicted countries. This isn't just a failing in China.
So we don't honestly know whether last month's spike in cases represented a genuine surge in cases, or just better surveillance.
For me, the `big point' coming out of this conference (which AP didn't mention at all) is that:
The virus is well-entrenched and circulating in the environment
While this isn't `news' per se, since most observers have assumed the virus was more prevalent than Chinese officials have been willing to acknowledge - it is newsworthy that the UN and FAO officials are publicly saying it.
This contradicts very recent statements by China's Minister of Agriculture, who denied the virus is endemic in that nation's poultry.
He called the source of the human infections `a mystery' and deflected concerns over the health of China's poultry.
UN officials are generally reluctant to openly contradict statements made by high ranking officials from member states.
It's not terribly diplomatic.
So the fact that they did so last night, at least indirectly, should give us some idea as to the seriousness with which they view the recent events in China.
