# 3026
Earlier this week there was a bit of furor in the news when a 23-year-old Chinese woman, riding aboard a train enroute from Blagoveschensk to Moscow, died from a respiratory ailment.
Immediately the media assumed the worst – that this was SARS, or possibly bird flu.
They based this assumption primarily on the region from where the woman came (Russo-Sino border) and the swift action by authorities to quarantine her fellow travelers.
As I pointed out on Thursday in The Russian Train Mystery, while bird flu and SARS were certainly possibilities, there were a number of far more likely (and less exotic) explanations for this woman’s death.
Not that I had any special insight into this case. But my medical training included the well known advice:
If you are in Central Park, and you hear hoof beats coming up behind you – think horses – not zebras.
In other words, when making a diagnosis consider the most common, or likely, condition first. Exotic diseases do happen . . . but only rarely. So go with the odds.
In this case, while it could have been a zebra (bird flu or SARS), it was far more likely to be a horse (bacterial or viral pneumonia – or both).
Over the past 18 hours a number of reports have filtered out of Russia indicating that this woman died of bacterial pneumonia. A condition that claims hundreds of thousands of lives every year.
Those who were placed in quarantine have now been released. A pretty good sign that the authorities have some confidence in their diagnosis.
No one else has shown any signs of infection.
Of course, this could have been SARS or bird flu. And the next time, maybe it will be.
So the actions of authorities to quarantine passengers was the correct one. And the efforts of the newshounds and reporters around the world to follow this story were warranted, as well.
I’m sure there will be some who will continue to harbor suspicions over this case. After all, the governments involved (China and Russia) aren’t particularly famous for their openness or tolerance of a free press.
But we can only play the hand we are dealt.
In this case, we’ve little recourse but to accept their pronouncement and move on. Their release of the quarantined travelers, however, is a pretty good sign that they believe the danger has passed.
Dead Chinese woman on train to Moscow had no SARS - official
17.04.2009, 10.11
MOSCOW, April 17 (Itar-Tass) - The Chinese woman who died on the Blagoveshchensk-Moscow train had no SARS (atypical pneumonia, severe acute respiratory syndrome) or dangerous influenza types, head of the Federal Supervision Agency for Customer Protection and Human Welfare (Rospotrebnadzor), RF Chief Sanitary Doctor Gennady Onishchenko said on Friday.
“The biopsy of the lungs, intestines, and brain of the deceased has shown that no SARS virus, no viruses of the H1, H3 and B flu types, and the highly toxic H5, H7 and H9 strains have been found,” the chief sanitary doctor said on the Vesti news television channel.
According to him, the tests are still being conducted and data from other laboratories will be received supposedly at about 11:00 – 13:00, Moscow time, Friday.
A little later, we received this announcement, that the cause of death was double bacterial pneumonia.
Chinese on Russian train died of double bacterial pneumonia
17.04.2009, 16.08
MOSCOW, April 17 (Itar-Tass) - The death of the Chinese citizen on the Blagoveshchensk-Moscow train on April 15 was caused by double bacterial pneumonia, Russia's chief sanitary office Gennady Onishchenko said on Friday.
"We're dealing with double bacterial pneumonia," Onishchenko said "I'm stating that the dead Chinese citizen had no particularly dangerous afflictions."
And lastly (hat tip Ironorehopper on Flutrackers), we have this announcement that all of the dead woman’s contacts who had been held in quarantine have been released.
All passenger trains Blagoveschensk Moscow removed from quarantine
All passenger trains Samara-Moscow, which last Wednesday died Chinawoman, removed from quarantine.
Kirov morning from the hospital were discharged Russians - guides, interpreters and doctors who conducted the inspection of passengers, and in the evening - all citizens of the PRC.
According to the survey, any diseases they have not.
Also healthy and Chinese from two other train, which had been ... in the Kostroma region.
Now local authorities are addressing the issue of their statement.
According to Rospotrebnadzor, the woman died of advanced bilateral pneumonia. The diagnosis of atypical pneumonia has not been confirmed, like "News"
I’d like to thank the hardworking newshounds on the flu forums who worked night and day following this breaking story. Dozens of Russian and Chinese language news accounts were found, translated, and posted on the forums over the past 72 hours.
While this may not have turned out to be something serious this time, our lucky streak may not last forever.
The odds are, when something serious does happen, that the newshounds on the Internet will know about it first.
