# 3293
Even though the H1N1 swine flu continues to circulate in the warmer Northern Hemisphere, it is really flu season south of the equator now.
Countries like New Zealand and Australia are bracing themselves for the onslaught of the H1N1 swine flu, with little hope of preventing the spread of the virus.
Tomorrow New Zealand will begin a big public service campaign, designed to prompt their citizens into preparing for what could be a very rough flu season.
This from Stuff.co.nz.
First the article, then a brief discussion of what we will be watching for over the next few months.
Prepare for swine flu: officials
By ANNA CHALMERS and KIM THOMAS - The Press
Health officials are warning New Zealanders to start preparing for an influenza outbreak, following a rapid increase in confirmed cases of swine flu in Australia.
The Health Ministry will tomorrow launch a public health campaign focused on limiting the spread of the influenza virus and making plans for family members should a major pandemic hit.
It comes as officials today confirmed another case of swine flu, taking the total to 12 cases - up from 11 yesterday.
"These preparations can include having sufficient supplies of food, water and medicines at home to cover a period of illness and making childcare arrangements in case some schools may need to close temporarily," Dr Fran McGrath, Deputy Director of Public Health said.
New Zealand, Australia, South Africa, and large parts of South America and Oceania are all in the unenviable position of now going into flu season with the new Swine Flu virus part of the mix.
It isn’t clear at this time whether this new virus will supplant the other seasonal flu strains, or if it will co-circulate with them.
While the H1N1 virus appears to be relatively mild, we’ve not seen enough cases to know for sure, and the virus could well change over the next few months.
Australia plans to aggressively pursue a vaccine, and hopes to have one before the end of their flu season. Whether that is a realistic goal or not remains to be seen, but we will watch with great interest to see how they fare.
Another big factor we will be watching is the attack rate.
Even if the H1N1 virus remains no more virulent than seasonal flu, if the percentage of the population infected is double or triple what is normally seen, then the impact on health care will likely be enormous.
We will also be watching to see what demographics are most affected by this virus. Right now it appears to favor young adults and children, but that could change over time.
We should also learn more about what pre-existing conditions are most likely to contribute to severe infections from the virus.
And of course, we will be watching to see if the virus picks up any genetic changes that increase its virulence, or gives it resistance to oseltamivir (Tamiflu).
The Northern Hemisphere received a lucky break with this virus appearing at the end of our flu season. We now have 4 or 5 months to prepare before the next flu season begins.
What happens south of the equator over the next few months may very well give us some idea of what awaits us next fall.
