# 3292
One of the subjects flu bloggers have focused on over the years has been difficulty of producing and distributing a vaccine to billions (or even just hundreds of millions) of people during a pandemic.
The mantra, repeated in practically every mainstream media story about pandemic vaccines over the past few years has been that, `a vaccine wouldn’t be available until about six months after a pandemic starts.’
Which is true . . . as far as it goes.
But what is often left out of these reports is the sobering reality that after six months, only a limited quantity of vaccine will be available. And that even if (by some miracle) a vaccine were available, it would take many months to immunize 300 million Americans.
Over the past month I’ve seen many news reports that suggest that a `vaccine for the swine flu could be available in the fall’.
And perhaps there will be, in limited quantities.
But based on logistics alone, it is highly unlikely that the bulk of US citizens will have a pandemic vaccine made available to them this fall.
Tonight, in an article focusing primarily on the TFAH report I blogged on earlier, Donald G. McNeil of the New York Times also writes about the prospects of seeing a vaccine in the fall.
Fears of Avian Flu Said to Help U.S. Prepare for Swine Flu
By DONALD G. McNEIL Jr.
Published: June 4, 2009
Six years of worrying about bird flu did much to prepare the United States for the current swine flu outbreak, federal officials and an independent monitoring group said Thursday, but they cautioned that there were still gaps in planning.
<Big Snip>
It also became clearer Thursday that little vaccine would be available by the fall, even if nothing went awry in production.
The goal of pandemic plans is to make 600 million doses in six months, enough for two doses for each American; that could cost $8 billion. Manufacturers now have seed virus. But clinical trials of their first runs will last into the summer, and federal regulators must wait until those are finished, Dr. Schuchat said.
Domestic production capacity is still “completely inadequate,” according to a 2008 Congressional Budget Office report, and it seems unlikely that foreign governments will let vaccine factories on their soil export doses before their own needs are met.
