(UPDATED)
# 3497
As I reported last night, the UK planned to release new estimates of projected fatalities from the swine flu pandemic today.
While the headline screams `at least 63,000 deaths’, there is precious little detail in the body of the article to tell us over what time span that might be expected, or even what numbers were used to calculate that death toll.
Last night’s report, from the Financial Times, indicated that the UK government was looking at a CFR (case fatality ratio) of .1% to .35% and an attack rate – by the end of the year – of 30%.
Admittedly, using the higher estimates, you do come up with as many as 70,000 fatalities in the UK over that time.
More than 5 times what is normally seen in a regular flu season.
But using the lower CFR (.1%) would result only about 20,000 estimated deaths (`only’ being a relative term). So I’m not sure about the use of the phrase `at least’.
UPDATE: The Times Online has changed their headline to read
Britain faces up to 63,000 swine flu deaths
They also changed the lead sentence to `Up to’.
Glad they caught it and changed it . . . because it makes a difference. I’ve corrected it for them, below.
And along the lines of my earlier blog (see Age Shifting And Pandemic Mortality), their `worst case scenario’ involves up to 50% of the fatalities occurring in children.
This from The Times Online.
July 16, 2009
Britain 'to suffer
at leastUp To 63,000 swine flu deaths'Sam Lister, Health Editor
At leastUp to 63,000 people will die as a result of swine flu as the pandemic takes hold of the country, according to latest calculations by the Department of Health.
Sir Liam Donaldson, the Chief Medical Officer, announced today that death rate estimates had been revised upwards following further study of the spread of the virus.
In the worst case scenario currently envisaged children would represent 50 per cent of all those infected.
The latest figures, released by the Department and the Health Protection Agency, show that a total of 29 people have died after contracting the H1N1 virus. He said that 30 per cent of the population is likely to be infected during the current first wave of the pandemic.
Sir Liam confirmed that the National Pandemic Flu Service will be activated as of today, as reported by The Times, but will operate in an interim form as preparations are still ongoing. The NPFS involves the national flu phone line, which allows flu diagnoses to be processed at high speed, with unique reference numbers given to callers with suspected swine flu to allow their friends or relatives to collect medication for them.
The Times understands that the decision to launch the flu line now was taken after it was discussed at a meeting of Cobra, the Government’s emergency committee, yesterday morning.
He defended the Government’s preparations for a pandemic following criticism by GPs who accused the Department of Health of providing conflicting advice to both doctors and patients.
