# 4016
One of the major problems we’ve discussed in these pages over the past 6 months has been the difficulty in assessing the impact and severity of this (or any other) pandemic in real-time.
The WHO (World Health Organization) has passed on the case and fatality counts submitted to them by their member nations, but those hardly reflect reality. They are obviously massive undercounts, but that doesn’t prevent critics from using those `official’ numbers to characterize H1N1 as a minor concern.
The WHO numbers as of November 27th were over 622,482 cases and at least 7,826 deaths.
When you figure that the global number of cases is less than 3% of the US estimated number of cases as of mid-October, you know the WHO numbers are way off.
For a fairly complete overview of why it is so difficult to get good numbers during a pandemic, see When No Number Is Right.
While it is quite obvious that the H1N1 pandemic has – so far – been a high morbidity-low mortality event, any useful numbers on the true impact of this virus are probably a couple of years away.
Today Jason Gale of Bloomberg News brings the WHO’s response to some of the critics regarding the severity of this pandemic, their relationship with pharmaceutical companies, and the public’s perception of what constitutes a pandemic.
H1N1, Seasonal Flu Deaths Aren’t Comparable, WHO Report Says
By Jason Gale
Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- The World Health Organization, facing criticism that it exaggerated the threat of swine flu, said it’s too soon to decide whether the pandemic is more or less deadly than seasonal flu and comparing death rates may be misleading.
Mortality from the new H1N1 strain is “unquestionably higher” than the death toll reported by national authorities, the Geneva-based agency said in a report seen by Bloomberg News before its scheduled publication today. Deaths totaled more than 7,820 as of Nov. 22, said the WHO, which estimates as many as 500,000 people die each year from seasonal strains.
Health authorities worldwide are assessing whether their response to swine flu is justified by its threat as cases of flu-like illness retreat in the U.S. and U.K. While a majority of patients recover within days and fatalities are a fraction of the seasonal flu toll, these figures mask the full impact of swine flu on society, WHO said.
“Compared with seasonal influenza, the H1N1 virus affects a much younger age group in all categories -- those most frequently infected, hospitalized, requiring intensive care, and dying,” WHO said in the report.
As a reminder, the CDC has estimated the number of cases just in the United States through October 17th, and those numbers far exceed the official global total.
CDC Estimates of 2009 H1N1 Influenza Cases, Hospitalizations and Deaths in the United States, April – October 17, 2009
November 12, 2009, 1:00 PM ET
The Numbers
- CDC estimates that between 14 million and 34 million cases of 2009 H1N1 occurred between April and October 17, 2009. The mid-level in this range is about 22 million people infected with 2009 H1N1.
- CDC estimates that between about 63,000 and 153,000 2009 H1N1-related hospitalizations occurred between April and October 17, 2009. The mid-level in this range is about 98,000 H1N1-related hospitalizations.
- CDC estimates that between about 2,500 and 6,000 2009 H1N1-related deaths occurred between April and October 17, 2009. The mid-level in this range is about 3,900 2009 H1N1-related deaths.
CDC Estimates of 2009 H1N1 Cases and Related Hospitalizations and Deaths from April-October 17, 2009, By Age Group
When the WHO report is posted later today, I’ll put up a link to it.
