# 2524
From Rob Stein of the Washington Post today we get a story that indicates that researchers are delving deeper into a possible link between the H1N1 pandemic vaccine and a very slight increase in the incidence of GBS (Guillain Barre Syndrome).
The data is preliminary, incomplete, and may yet prove to be unsubstantiated. But a panel at the HHS’s NVAC (National Vaccine Advisory Committee) has voted unanimously to follow up with further research.
First the story from the Washington Post, then a few brief comments.
Study hints at H1N1 vaccine complications
Officials: Flu perils still outweigh risk
Sunday, April 25, 2010 2:56 AM
By Rob Stein
THE WASHINGTON POST
Federal health officials are investigating the first hints of possible significant complications from the H1N1 vaccine, but they've stressed that the concerns probably will turn out to be a false alarm.
Officials' latest analysis of data has detected what could be a somewhat elevated rate of Guillain-Barre syndrome, which can cause paralysis and death; Bell's palsy, a temporary facial paralysis; and thrombocytopenia, which is a low level of blood platelets.
The data are being collected through five of the networks the government is using to monitor people who were inoculated against H1N1, also known as swine flu.
Because of the problems experienced 34 years ago with the 1976 swine flu vaccine, doctors, researchers, and a small army of statisticians have been on the lookout for any possible spike in vaccine-related side effects with the 2009 H1N1 vaccine.
As with any drug, vaccines have the potential to cause adverse side effects. There is no such thing as a 100% safe drug.
A risk-reward calculation must be made to decide if the benefits of a drug trumps any potential down-side to taking it. Even over-the-counter medications, like Aspirin and NSAIDS, are known to cause thousands of severe medical complications each year.
Here in the United States recipients of this year’s flu vaccine have been under close scrutiny by a number of monitoring programs, including the VAERS (Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System), the military (with over 1 million personnel getting shots, and intense follow up), and the VSD project (Vaccine Safety Datalink).
Their goal is to look for, analyze, and identify any risks from either the pandemic or the seasonal flu shot.
This is the most scrutiny any influenza vaccination campaign has ever received, and so it isn’t terribly surprising that they are seeing hints of what may be very rare adverse reactions.
We’ll have to wait to see what is learned here, but even if a link is determined, it is important to keep things in perspective.
Somewhere between 12,000 and 18,000 Americans likely died from the H1N1 virus over the past year, and most of those were under the age of 65.
While the vaccine came too late to prevent many of those fatalities, the vaccination of 80 million Americans is probably at least partially responsible for our not seeing a serious third wave this spring.
The vaccine, we can assume, probably saved some number of lives. How many?
Well . . . I wouldn’t even want to begin to quantify that. But I suspect it is a significant number.
If the vaccine is eventually linked to some small increase in the rate of GBS, or any other serous side effect for that matter, that risk must be balanced against the benefits it produced.
And based on what we know right now, those benefits appear substantial.
