# 4598
Every Spring scientists look at variables like Atlantic SST’s (Sea Surface Temperatures), whether the Pacific is in an El Nino – neutral – or in a La Nina pattern, and a host of other climatological indicators in an attempt to divine what kind of hurricane season we might expect.
Some years, they get it right. Some years, they don’t.
Tomorrow, May 27th, at 10:00AM ET NOAA will release their 2010 hurricane season forecast via a conference call. But today, a pair of well known hurricane experts gave their own assessment.
'Hell of a year' for hurricanes, experts warn
Record warm seas for May; storms could complicate Gulf oil disaster
These ships are among the hundreds working in the Gulf of Mexico to cap and cleanup the BP oil spill. That work could see delays if storms develop this hurricane season, which runs from June to November.
FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. - The threat of an above-average 2010 Atlantic hurricane season has increased over the last month and it now promises to be "very active," two leading forecasters said Wednesday. The warning comes as the season also sees an unusual factor added to the mix: the Gulf oil disaster.
William Gray and Phil Klozbach, who head the respected Colorado State University hurricane forecast team, said they would ramp up their prediction for the 2010 season in a report due out on June 2.
"The numbers are going to go up quite high," Gray said. "This looks like a hell of a year."
While predictions of active seasons are interesting, and potentially useful for emergency planners, the reality is it only takes one major land falling hurricane to make for a very bad year for a whole lot of people.
It does appear that El Nino is weakening in the Pacific, and in about half the time when that happens the Pacific slips into a La Nina – which reduces wind shear in the Atlantic which is considered conducive for hurricane formation.
Water temps in the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico are also running above normal, and warm waters feed the `engine’ of a hurricane.
So the ingredients that many experts believe contribute to an active season are in place. There are other factors we understand less well, and so these forecasts are subject to considerable error.
Will it be `a hell of a year’?
Stay tuned.
In any event, I’ll have the NOAA forecast from the National Hurricane Center in a blog late tomorrow morning.
NOAA to Issue 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
NOAA will release its initial seasonal outlook for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season during a press conference on May 27 in Washington, D.C. NOAA Administrator Dr. Jane Lubchenco will discuss the outlook with FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate highlighting the critical need for storm preparedness.
WHAT:
Press conference announcing NOAA’s 2010 Atlantic hurricane season outlook.
WHEN:
Thursday, May 27, 2010; 10am ET
