Mariner’s Poem On Hurricanes
June too soon.
July stand by.
August look out you must.
September remember.
October all over.
- Published in “Weather Lore” by R. Inwards in 1898
# 4644
Although the Atlantic Hurricane season officially begins on June 1st each year, early season Hurricanes are relatively rare events. Over the past 50 years, only 8 Atlantic hurricanes have formed in June - that’s about one very 6 years.
Mid-September sees the peak of hurricane activity each year
But with elevated SST (sea surface temperatures) in the Atlantic and Caribbean, a dissipating El Nino in the Pacific, and predictions of an active hurricane season from CSU’s Forecast Team and NOAA, June may not be `too soon’ to start watching the tropics this year.
In fact, NOAA’s National Hurricane Center is watching an area – far out in the Atlantic – that they feel has potential to develop into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours.
This is not only unusual for mid-June, but for its location as well.
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT MON JUN 14 2010FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1425 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE
REMAINS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
This time of year, if we do see hurricanes, they nearly always form in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico – where shallower waters tend to heat up sooner than the Atlantic. To see something trying to form this far out into the Atlantic, this early, is unusual.
Typical June storm tracks
With literally hundreds of thousands displaced and made homeless by the Haitian earthquake – and many living in tent cities – the start of the tropical weather season is regarded with great concern among relief agencies
Some of the early computer models (notoriously unreliable before a storm establishes a well defined core circulation), send this area of disturbed weather in Haiti’s general direction.
It is probably at least a week away, however, and any veteran tropical weather watcher will tell you that a lot can happen to a weather system in 7 days. This area may fizzle, or turn north into the open Atlantic, or pass well south of Haiti.
But for tens of thousands of refugees living in tent cities, even a serious rain event could be calamitous.
Elsewhere, even though hurricane season generally doesn’t ramp up until August of September, residents living in vulnerable areas should keep this year’s NOAA predictions of an active season in mind, and make their preparations now . . . before a storm threatens.
The last week of May was National Hurricane Preparedness week, and over the last month this blog devoted considerable time to the subject. A few essays you may have missed include:
A Hurricane Reality Check
National Hurricane Preparedness Week: Day 6
NOAA 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook
The Worst That Could Happen
Hurricanes and Inland Flooding
Why I’ll Be Gone With The Wind
Storm Surge Monday
The Crossroads Of The Atlantic Storm Season
You Don’t Have To Live On The Coast
