# 4748
Bonnie is a minimal Tropical Storm this morning, and probably won’t intensify much (if any) before impacting Southern Florida and the Keys.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread across these areas later today as the center either crosses the lower part of the state or shoots the Florida Straits. Either way, the system should be in the Gulf of Mexico tonight.
The models remain in pretty good agreement, although they have been shifting a bit eastward over the past 12 hours. It appears that the northern Gulf Coast will be next on Bonnie’s hit parade.
Although conditions aren’t ideal for intensification, Bonnie will be traveling over very warm Gulf waters starting later tonight, and so interests in her path should take this seriously.
Those who have not made their hurricane preparations should do so now.
As of 5am this morning tropical storm watches are now posted on the gulf coast from Morgan City, La to Destin, Fl.
The National Hurricane Center’s 5am Discussion has the following forecast for position and strength.
Forecasters are giving Bonnie only about 1 chance in 10 of reaching hurricane strength before making landfall -probably in the wee hours on Sunday.
The biggest impact of this storm may well be its effect on the oil spill cleanup and recovery from the Deep Water Horizon disaster.
As always, you should rely on the NHC and local weather statements when a tropical storm threatens. Recent local advisories for areas likely to be affected include:
Hurricane Local Statements for BONNIE
These statements are also available at weather.gov
Page last modified: Friday, 23-Jul-2010 09:32:19 GMT
Mobile, AL / Pensacola, FL 431 AM CDT FRI JUL 23
Tampa Bay Area, FL 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 23
