UPDATED: 1110hrs EST 7/22/10
Although the track (and future intensity) is less than certain at this point, the NHC has declared this system to be a tropical depression and expect some gradual intensification over the next hours and days.
Tropical Storm watches and warnings have therefore been issued for South Florida and the Keys.
Reconnaissance flights will be inside the system later today, and should give us a better idea on its development and track.
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We may find out later today or tomorrow, as the tropical disturbance (red circle) we’ve been following for several days in the Caribbean appears poised to intensify into a tropical cyclone.
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 825 AM EDT THU JUL 22 2010
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BAHAMAS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A CLOSED CIRCULATION HAS FORMED.
ADVISORIES ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM WILL BE INITIATED AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC TODAY. THIS ADVISORY WILL LIKELY INCLUDE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. - NHC
If this system develops a sustained wind speed above 39 MPH before any other system develops, it will be named Bonnie.
Most of the Hurricane models put this system at or near South Florida in a couple of days, and most have it entering the Gulf of Mexico later this weekend.
With it’s path and future strength are uncertain, interests in the Bahamas, South Florida, and all along the Gulf Coast need to keep an eye on this system.
If you’ve not made your hurricane preparations yet, today would be a good day to do so. Some essential hurricane resources to get you started include:
http://www.fema.gov/hazard/hurricane/index.shtm
http://www.ready.gov/america/beinformed/hurricanes.html
You may also wish to revisit my blog entitled Hurricane Resources On The Net for links to storm resources online.
For the latest updates, visit the NHC (National Hurricane Center).
