# 4808
Eurosurveillance Journal has a bit of a forward-looking editorial that discusses what this winter’s flu season may be like in Europe.
The authors are quick to point out that predictions are always risky, but base their assumptions largely on the behavior of the H1N1 virus seen over the past few months in the Southern Hemisphere and the presumed levels of immunity in the community.
Perhaps the most salient point made by the authors is that the mix of influenza viruses this year will likely include some quantity of H3N2 and influenza B, as well as the new H1N1 strain.
The entire article is worth reading , but I’ve excerpted a small portion below.
Editorials
A Nicoll , M Sprenger
(EXCERPT)
Influenza during the 2010–11 winter in Europe – what is to come ?
Influenza in Europe has been at very low levels in 2010 after the end of the autumn–winter waves of the 2009–10 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic [9]. However, pandemic phases are global, not regional and the activity of influenza in the spring and summer has little predictive value for the subsequent winter.
Some observations can be made based on the forward look risk assessment of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) and the data that has come forth subsequently which were recently reviewed by an ECDC convened expert group [10]. To date, it seems increasingly unlikely that the 2009-10 pandemic will follow the pattern of the last (1968) pandemic in Europe when transmissibility increased for the second winter [11].
<SNIP>
It would therefore seem probable that the European 2010-11 winter epidemic will be similar in its levels to the current epidemics in the southern hemisphere - inter-pandemic influenza with a mix of the 2009 pandemic A(H1N1), A(H3N2) and B viruses [3,4]. However those predictions will need to be checked and confirmed or refuted.
