UPDATED: 0840 EDT 08/29
Earl has been upgraded to a hurricane.
# 4846
Although the Atlantic Hurricane season has been relatively quiet up until now, the tropics have awakened in the past week and we are watching a hurricane (Danielle), an intensifying tropical storm (Earl), and an impressive looking area of suspicion.
Danielle, which briefly reached CAT 4 strength earlier this week, has weakened and is headed for a cold watery death in the north Atlantic.
Earl is expected to reach hurricane strength later today, and is an immediate threat to Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and parts of the northern Leeward chain of islands.
Later in the week, Earl may even pose a threat to the U.S. mainland as a major (CAT 3 or greater) hurricane, although it is far too early to tell.
Right now, the tropical storm-force wind field forecast shows only about a 20% probability for the mid-Atlantic coastline 5 days out. These forecasts are subject to change and refinement, so interested parties need to check them every day.
Lastly, the area of disturbed weather in the far eastern Atlantic is following roughly the same path as Earl, although it is too early to know if it will pose a threat to the islands.
These tracking maps are likely to become very busy over the next 60 days as we traverse the peak of the hurricane season. You can follow the latest tropical developments on the National Hurricane Center’s website or by following the @FEMA on Twitter.
May was National Hurricane Preparedness week, and during that month this blog devoted considerable time to the subject. A few of my blogs on the subject included:
A Hurricane Reality Check
Hurricanes and Inland Flooding
Why I’ll Be Gone With The Wind
Storm Surge Monday
You Don’t Have To Live On The Coast
Everyone should have a preparedness plan, of course.
But if you live anywhere within a few hundred miles of the the Atlantic or Gulf Coasts - given the time of year – it makes sense to get those plans in order now.
Some essential hurricane resources to get you started include:
http://www.fema.gov/hazard/hurricane/index.shtm
