Avian Flu Diary: NOAA Still Expecting An Active Hurricane Season

# 4785

Considering the aggressive 2010 Atlantic Tropical Season outlooks (they don’t like calling them predictions), the first two months of this year’s hurricane season have been surprisingly uneventful.

Of course, for those of us living in Hurricane country, we’re fine with that.

But past performance, as they say, doesn’t guarantee future results . . . August is traditionally the time of year when the season gets rolling, and the ingredients for for an active hurricane season are still in place.

El Niño in the Pacific has given way to a cooling La Niña, which tends to reduce wind sheer above the tropical Atlantic, promoting cyclone genesis.

Additionally, we are still seeing impressive water temperatures across much of the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, and tropical Atlantic.

So a lot can happen over the next 4 months.

This update from NOAA (National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration) reminds us not to be lulled into complacency by this slow start to the season.

NOAA Still Expects Active Atlantic Hurricane Season; La Niña Develops

August 5, 2010

Hurricane Alex, the first named storm of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, hits northeast Mexico on June 30.

The Atlantic Basin remains on track for an active hurricane season, according to the scheduled seasonal outlook update issued today by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. With the season’s peak just around the corner – late August through October – the need for preparedness plans is essential.

NOAA also announced today that, as predicted last spring, La Niña has formed in the tropical Pacific Ocean. This favors lower wind shear over the Atlantic Basin, allowing storm clouds to grow and organize. Other climate factors pointing to an active hurricane season are warmer-than-average water in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, and the tropical multi-decadal signal, which since 1995 has brought favorable ocean and atmospheric conditions in unison, leading to more active seasons.

“August heralds the start of the most active phase of the Atlantic hurricane season and with the meteorological factors in place, now is the time for everyone living in hurricane prone areas to be prepared,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator.

Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the whole season – June 1 to November 30 – NOAA’s updated outlook is projecting, with a 70 percent probability, a total of (including Alex, Bonnie and Colin):

14 to 20 Named Storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:

8 to 12 Hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:

4 to 6 could be Major Hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)

These ranges are still indicative of an active season, compared to the average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes; however, the upper bounds of the ranges have been lowered from the initial outlook in late May, which reflected the possibility of even more early season activity.

(Continue . . . )

You can find more, including hurricane preparedness links, on my recent blog August Tropical Climatology, but some essential hurricane resources to get you started include: