# 4849
As Hurricane Earl ramps up in the eastern Caribbean, forecasters and emergency operations agencies all along the Atlantic seaboard have a difficult week ahead.
This morning, the official track from the NHC takes the storm close to, but just off shore from, the eastern coast of the United States as a major hurricane.
Close enough that portions of the coastline are within the cone of forecast uncertainty.
With the Labor Day weekend ahead, considered to be the last hurrah of the summer for many visitors to the eastern shore, the stakes for getting this forecast right are understandably high.
The good news is, the worst of the weather in a tropical system generally remains to the right of the storm, and in this case, should remain off shore.
The bad news is, computer models continue to run the storm up the eastern seaboard; close enough to pose a danger, but far enough out that it could easily spare the area entirely.
Making this a difficult forecast indeed.
And an unenviable week for emergency planners as well, who must decide at least 48 hours in advance whether to pull the trigger and issue evacuations or other local warnings.
A thankless job, particularly if they err on the side of caution, and the storm stays out to sea.
Be glad this isn’t your call to make.
Although most of the computer models keep Earl offshore, they waver and change with every run (usually twice daily), and a few put the storm uncomfortably close to the coast in 96 to 120 hours.
I’m not going to get into `model wars’ (a favorite pastime on the hurricane forums), or in speculating whether this storm affects the U.S. coastline.
It is enough to acknowledge that sections of the coast lie within the cone of forecast uncertainty. Which no doubt will have a lot of planners burning the midnight oil the next couple of nights.
And on the heels of Earl, we are likely to have Fiona threatening the Leeward Islands by week’s end, although it is too soon to know where she goes after that.
Which means that – no matter where you live along the Gulf or Atlantic Coastlines (and inland for hundreds of miles) – you need to be watching developments in the Caribbean and taking steps to prepare should one of these storms head your way.
This from FEMA.
Hurricane Season 2010
FEMA is urging residents to be prepared for their personal safety and survival in case a hurricane threatens their community. To assist in these efforts, FEMA, along with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, is helping to raise awareness of steps that can be taken to help protect citizens, their communities and property.
Be Prepared for 2010
- Take Action – Get a Kit
- Weather Radios
- Hurricane Preparedness from Ready.gov (PDF 27KB, TXT 6KB)
- The Disaster Declaration Process (PDF 278KB, TXT 6KB)
- Hurricane Season and Flooding (PDF 278KB, TXT 4KB)
- Inland Flooding (PDF 30KB, TXT 4KB)
- Preparing for Your Pets (PDF 30KB, TXT 7KB)
- Use of Social Media Tools (PDF 106KB, TXT 12KB)
