Update: The 5am (11/03) NHC advisory has Tomas downgraded to a tropical depression. While re-intensification is still expected, even if that doesn’t occur Tomas could present a serious flooding risk for Haiti.
Here is the 5am NHC Forecast Track.
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Although only a tropical storm at this hour (downgraded form a CAT 2 storm a couple of days ago), Tomas is expected to regain hurricane strength over the next 48 hours as it continues its trek westward across the south Caribbean sea.
NHC forecast track 1100hrs 11/2/10
Although not writ in stone, computer models are in pretty good agreement that in a couple of days Tomas will turn first north and then northeasterly, and pose a significant threat to the island of Hispaniola.
The exact timing, and the position of the storm 4 or 5 days from now, is less clear. Here is an excerpt from the NHC’s latest discussion (11am 11/2/10).
AS A RESULT... TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND 48
HOURS IN DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH WILL NOT COMPLETELY CAPTURE TOMAS AND THERE REMAINS A LARGE DISAGREEMENT IN THE FUTURE POSITION OF THE CYCLONE AT DAYS 4 AND 5.THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THAT TIME PERIOD AND IS NEAR A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...GFDL... UKMET...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF MODELS.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...IT APPEARS THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER IN THE WEEK.
There are serious concerns that Tomas’ forward speed could decrease and the storm could linger over the island for some time, dropping heavy rains and increasing the flooding potential.
Intensity forecasts are even more problematic than track forecasts . . . but the National Hurricane Center gives Tomas about a 73% chance of being a hurricane 72 hours from now.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/1500Z 13.5N 72.6W 45 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 13.7N 73.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 03/1200Z 14.1N 75.0W 65 KT
36HR VT 04/0000Z 14.6N 75.8W 70 KT
48HR VT 04/1200Z 15.2N 76.0W 80 KT
72HR VT 05/1200Z 17.2N 74.9W 90 KT
96HR VT 06/1200Z 20.0N 72.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 07/1200Z 22.5N 69.5W 60 KT
All of which means that come sometime on Friday, hundreds of thousands of Haitians currently living in refugee camps – often under tarps or in tents – will find themselves potentially looking for shelter from flooding rains and hurricane force winds.
This, on top of the ongoing Haitian earthquake relief efforts and a spreading outbreak of Cholera.
Even assuming that most of these refugees can find temporary shelter during the height of the storm, the fragile infrastructure (including shelter, clean water, food,and medical care) of their refugee camps are at substantial risk from Tomas.
In anticipation that they will be needed, the US Navy has announced the immediate deployment of the amphibious ship USS Iwo Jima to Haiti to assist in post-Tomas disaster relief operations.
USS Iwo Jima Deploys to Haiti as Tropical Storm Approaches
Release Date: 11/1/2010 5:19:00 PM
By Mr. Jose Ruiz, U.S. Southern Command Public Affairs
MIAMI (NNS) -- U.S. Southern Command directed the amphibious ship USS Iwo Jima (LHD 7) to steam toward Haiti today in preparation for the forecasted arrival of tropical storm Tomas later this week.
Iwo Jima will deploy to Haiti from Suriname, where it arrived Thursday on its final country visit for Continuing Promise 2010, a four-month, humanitarian civic assistance deployment to eight nations in the Caribbean region. The ship is scheduled to arrive in Haiti later this week.
Large amphibious ships, like Iwo Jima, resemble small aircraft carriers and include the ability to support helicopter and landing craft operations to quickly move personnel and cargo, making it an ideal platform to support humanitarian-relief missions on short notice.
