Hurricane Preparedness Week 2014 – Day 1

 

 

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Live along the Atlantic or Gulf coastline long enough, and the odds say you’ll eventually be impacted by an Atlantic hurricane or tropical storm. As a native Floridian - I’ve seen more than a few - which is why  I give hurricane preparedness a prominent place in this blog each year. 

 

Well over 50 million Americans live in susceptible coastal areas, while further inland many more are susceptible to inland flooding and spinoff tornadoes. 

From Escambia County Hurricane Preparedness Information

And while the tropical threat to Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean islands is well known, a recent study (see Nature  The poleward migration of the location of tropical cyclone maximum intensity) suggests the hurricane threat may be increasing for higher latitudes.   This from NOAA News.

 

NOAA-led study: Tropical cyclone 'maximum intensity' is shifting toward poles

Researchers find that the average latitude where tropical cyclones achieve maximum intensity has been shifting poleward since 1980

May 14, 2014

Typhoon Francisco and Super Typhoon Lekima on October 23, 2013 as they tracked northwestward toward China and Japan. (Credit: Tim Olander and Rick Kohrs, SSEC/CIMSS/UW-Madison, based on Japan Meteorological Agency data.)

Over the past 30 years, the location where tropical cyclones reach maximum intensity has been shifting toward the poles in both the northern and southern hemispheres at a rate of about 35 miles, or one-half a degree of latitude, per decade according to a new study, The Poleward Migration of the Location of Tropical Cyclone Maximum Intensity, published tomorrow in Nature.

As tropical cyclones move into higher latitudes, some regions closer to the equator may experience reduced risk, while coastal populations and infrastructure poleward of the tropics may experience increased risk. With their devastating winds and flooding, tropical cyclones can especially endanger coastal cities not adequately prepared for them. Additionally, regions in the tropics that depend on cyclones' rainfall to help replenish water resources may be at risk for lower water availability as the storms migrate away from them.

(Continue . . .)

 

All this week we’ll be talking about the different types of hurricane threats, and what you should be doing now to prepare for them.  

 

While later this week we’ll look at hurricane winds, surge, and flooding, and preparedness today we’ll focus on some of the ways that this year’s hurricane forecasts will change.  

 

Five prominent changes are described in a NOAA release called Update on NHC Products and Services for 2014 (PDF).

 

The biggest change will be the inclusion of a color-coded experimental Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map showing the locations that could be affected by storm surge based on their Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) computer model.

 

 

We looked at this forecasting tool back in 2011 in Getting SLOSHed For Hurricane Season.

 

Other changes this year:

 

The Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) and Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook (GTWO) will both be extended to a 5-day outlook. The TWO and GTWO products are issued at 2 a.m., 8 a.m., 2 p.m., and 8 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time.

 

While forecast tracking of Hurricanes has improved considerably over the years, less progress has been made in predicting intensities 12, 24, 48, and 72 hours out.

 

So gone this year will be the The Wind Speed Probability product which showed the likelihood that a tropical cyclone would be at any one of several different wind speed categories over the next three days. 

 

The concern was people were basing their evacuation/preparation decisions on a model that the NHC  describes as being accurate, but in some cases could provide  `a highly misleading estimate of landfall intensity’.  

 

A relief to all those who see  `all-caps’ text messaging as `shouting’, the NHC will implement a more eye-friendly standard for their Tropical Weather Outlook and the Tropical Cyclone Discussion using mixed case, as well as with the full set of standard punctuation symbols.  No formatting changes are planned for other NHC advisory products at this time.

 

And lastly, as a further indication that hurricane track forecasts continue to improve, the 2014 Tropical Cyclone forecast cone will be slightly smaller for 72 hours out, and beyond.  Not a big change, but a hopeful trend.

 

When it comes to getting the latest information on hurricanes, your first stop should always be the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida. These are the real pros, and the only ones you should rely on to track and forecast the storm.

• Tropical storm watches will be issued when tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast within 48 hours.
• Tropical storm warnings will be issued when those conditions are expected within 36 hours. Similar increases in lead-time will apply to hurricane watches and warnings.

 

NOAA’s NWS National Hurricane Center in Miami also has a Facebook page, where you can keep up with the latest tropical developments.

 

The second official information source you should have bookmarked is your local Office of Emergency Management.  Here you’ll be able to access local warnings, flood maps and evacuation information. To find your local one, you can Google or Yahoo search with your county/parish name and the words `Emergency Management’.  

 

If you are on Twitter, you should also follow @FEMA, @CraigatFEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific and @ReadyGov. 

 

We all hope that the 2014 tropical season will be as non-eventful as last year, but no one can predict what may waltz up out of the tropics this summer.  

 

As I wrote a week ago (see NOAA: 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook), 1992 was a `quiet’ year for hurricanes – as long as you don’t count Category 5 hurricane Andrew . . . 

 

Which is why preparedness – not hope -  is your best insurance against an uncertain, and potentially dangerous, hurricane season.

Hurricane Preparedness Week: Day 6 & 7

 

 

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Today is day 7 of Hurricane Preparedness Week, but as the folks living in Oklahoma City can tell you after last night’s round by tornadoes, you don’t have to live within reach of one of these tropical storm systems to find yourselves dealing with severe, life-threatening weather conditions.

 

So while we talk about Hurricane Preparedness this week, everyone should take this yearly reminder to beef up their individual, family, and business emergency plans.

 

 

Yesterday and today, Hurricane Preparedness Week has focused on Getting Ready, and Taking Action.  So first, a pair of short videos from NOAA on both of these tasks.

 

 

 

 

 

Ready.gov has an extensive Hurricane preparedness website, with information on what to do before, during, and after the storm.

 

 

Far too many people mistakenly believe they’ve seen the worst that a hurricane can deliver because they’ve been on the periphery of one of the large storms we’ve seen over the past 20 years. 

 

The truth is, we’ve not had a Category 5 storm strike the U.S. mainland since 1992, when Andrew took out a large portion of Homestead, Florida.

 

Before that you have to go back to 1969, and Hurricane Camille in Mississippi. 

 

 

The modern benchmark for hurricane disasters is Hurricane Katrina, that devastated New Orleans in 2005.  But that storm was barely a Category 3 storm when it hit land. 

 

As horrific as it was, it could have been worse. . .

 

The lessons of Katrina, Wilma, Ike, Irene and Sandy are that it doesn’t take a category 5 storm to cause major devastation, disruptions, and deaths.  Even tropical storms – such as Allison in 2001 – can prove deadly (55 fatalities, $9 billion in damage).

 

While the storm may last 12 to 24 hours, the aftermath – where power may be out, businesses may be closed, and services may curtailed -  can drag on for weeks.

 

Basic Preps: Emergency Weather Radio, First Aid Kit, Battery Lantern, Water storage

Which makes the `standard advice’ of having at least 3 days worth of supplies less than ideal.  Today, most emergency officials recommend you prepare for `at least a week’ (see When 72 Hours Isn’t Enough).

 

While having food, water, and prescription medicines to last a week or more is vital, sometimes your best option is to get get out of harm’s way.

 

The following photo taken in Crystal Beach after Hurricane Ike in 2008 proves that staying home in the face of a flood, a hurricane, or other natural disaster can have deadly consequences.

If you live in an evacuation zone, you should obviously be prepared to leave immediately when ordered, but everyone should have a bug-out bag they can grab in the event they must quickly abandon their home (see  When Evacuation Is The Better Part Of Valor).

 

My Bug-out-bag, Canteen, & Toiletry kit

 

Another important aspect of preparedness for millions of families is anticipating the disaster needs of the non-human members of the family (see Prepping For Pets).

 

We don’t know where, or even if, a hurricane will make landfall this year. But last month we saw that NOAA predicts active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season.

 

If you haven’t already downloaded the updated Tropical Cyclone Preparedness Guide, now would be an excellent time to do so.

 

 

All this week we’ve focused on hurricane preparedness, but you’ll find dozens of other preparedness articles in the blog by searching this link.

 

And if you missed any of my earlier blogs this week on hurricane preparedness, you can visit them at the links below:

 

Grady Norton: The First Hurricane Forecaster

Hurricane Preparedness Week: Inland Flooding

Hurricane Preparedness Week & The Tale Of The Tape

Storm Surge Monday

National Hurricane Preparedness Week – Day 1

Grady Norton: The First Hurricane Forecaster

 

Note: Today is day five of National Hurricane Preparedness Week, and the focus today is on forecasting.

 

A couple of years ago I took a look at the life of legendary hurricane forecaster Grady Norton, and at how hurricane forecasting technology has changed over the past 50 years.

 

Today, a (slightly updated) repeat of that column for those who missed it.

 

 

# 7340

 

For those of a certain age who can remember growing up along the Gulf or Atlantic coasts in the 1950’s - before the advent of weather satellites - the technology we have at hand today is truly remarkable.

 

Our satellites today can probe deep into storm clouds and detect wind speeds, water vapor, precipitation, and heat energy of storm systems a thousand miles from the nearest weather observation post.

 

Three different views from space, taken May 26th, 2011 1345Z – NOAA

 

Weather forecasting began a new age when on April 1st 1960,  Tiros I - the world's first weather satellite - was launched into Earth orbit from Cape Canaveral, Florida.

 

For the first time, we had a `god's eye view' of earth. Regions of our globe where once cartographers could only inscribe "Here there be Dragons' could be watched 24 hours a day.

 

Our view of our world changed, practically overnight.

 

It was a wondrous day for everyone, except possibly for members of the Flat Earth Society. Below is the first television picture from earth orbit.

 

I was six years old, and I remember it like it was yesterday.

 

 

Sure the pictures were grainy, and the resolution laughable by today's standards, but for the first time we could watch from aloft and observe how and where hurricanes formed.

 

It meant we were no longer solely dependent on ship's reports and Hurricane Hunter aircraft to know if disaster lay just beyond the horizon.

It meant more than 12 hours warning to prepare for a storm.

 

TIROS 1 could take and transmit about 1 picture an hour, and only during daylight hours. Infrared capability – which allowed 24 hour coverage - was added to later `birds'.

 

Today, our reconnaissance satellites can take 40 pictures an hour, and see right through the clouds and measure rainfall, winds and even sea water temperatures. As a result, hurricane forecasting has improved tremendously over the past 50 years.

 

For those with an interest in how it was done before the advent of weather satellites and supercomputers, I’ve a bit of a treat today.

 

A profile of the first great hurricane forecaster – Grady Norton.

 

First, during the 1950’s there was a little remembered TV series called The Man Behind The Badge.  Hosted by Charles Bickford, the show profiled public servants who had made important contributions to public safety.

 

In 1955 a dramatized tribute to legendary hurricane forecaster Grady Norton was broadcast.  Grady had passed away suddenly of a stroke just a few months before while tracking Hurricane Hazel.

 

 

October 10th, 1954 Daytona News-Journal Article.

 

This 30 minute show stars Milburn Stone (of Gunsmoke Fame), and is hosted by a nostalgia TV site called LIKE Television.   It’s a fictionalized story, but I think you’ll find it well worth viewing.

 

Click the image below to view the show.

I

 

Norton became the Chief Hurricane Forecaster at the Jacksonville Weather Bureau Hurricane center in 1935 and famously forecast the track of the 200+ MPH Labor Day storm that year, providing 12 critical hours of warning to the Keys and South Florida.

 

 

In 1943 the Hurricane forecasting office moved to Miami, as a joint effort of the National Weather Service, Air Force, and Navy.  Norton remained their Chief forecaster and most public spokesperson until his death in 1954.

 

It wasn’t until the mid-1960s that the NHC as we know it today was established as its own entity, separate from the National Weather Service.

 

While  the first director of the National Hurricane Center is listed as Gordon Dunn (1965–1967), Grady Norton is widely regarded as that agency’s first `unofficial’ director.

 

When meteorologists talk about Grady Norton today, they do so with considerable wonder and awe. His uncanny ability to track storms based on little more than ships reports was the stuff of legend.

 

While primitive by today’s standards, the work done by Grady Norton and other pioneers of meteorology during the first half of the last century deserves mention and remembrance.

 

Despite the limited technology of the day, they undoubtedly saved a lot of lives.

 

For a look at how forecasting is done today, you can watch the following short video from the National Hurricane Center.

 

Tomorrow, day six of hurricane preparedness week, we’ll be looking at planning for the storm’s arrival. If you haven’t already downloaded the updated Tropical Cyclone Preparedness Guide, now would be an excellent time to do so.

Hurricane Preparedness Week: Inland Flooding

 

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Odds are, on the night of June 19th, 1972, no one sitting at home in New York state or Pennsylvania  gave much thought to a weak early season hurricane named Agnes that was making landfall on the Florida panhandle more than a thousand miles to their south.

 

But a week later Agnes would end up being the costliest hurricane in U.S. history up until that date.   And a life altering event for millions of people far removed from where she came ashore.

 

 

Amazingly, of the 122 deaths associated with this storm, only 9 occurred in Florida where Agnes made landfall. The rest - 113 fatalities - were caused by inland fresh water flooding, with New York and Pennsylvania suffering the highest loses.

 

NOAA  describes the flooding damage this way:

 

Hurricane Agnes was the costliest natural disaster in the United States at that time. Damage was estimated at $3.1 billion and 117 deaths were reported. Hardest hit was Pennsylvania, with $2.1 billion in damages and 48 deaths, making Hurricane Agnes the worst natural disaster ever to hit the state. The damage over Pennsylvania was so extreme, the entire state was declared a disaster area by President Richard Nixon.

 

While we tend to concern ourselves most over the rare CATEGORY 5 storm (like Andrew in 1992 or Camille in 1969), it is often the slow moving minimal hurricane or tropical storm that produces extensive damage hundreds . . . sometimes more than 1000 miles inland.

 

Other storms with far-reaching impact include:

• Hurricane Hazel, which had already devastated Haiti (400-1000 deaths) came ashore on the North-South Carolina border in August of 1954.  She claimed 95 lives in the United States and was responsible for as many as 100 deaths in Canada.
• The CAT 5 monster Camille, which claimed 143 lives along the Gulf coast also killed 113 people in associated flooding in Virginia.
• And Audrey, the horrific `surprise’ gulf coast CAT 4 storm of 1957 -that claimed more than 550 lives -  at least 15 of those victims were in Canada.

 

Which is why today’s focus in NOAA’s National Hurricane Preparedness Week is inland flooding.

 

 

For more on this week’s preparedness campaign, click on the graphic below, and watch the videos.

 

 

When it comes to getting the latest information on hurricanes, your first stop should always be the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida. These are the real experts, and the only ones you should rely on to track and forecast the storm.

 

If you are on Twitter, you should also follow @FEMA, @CraigatFEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific and @ReadyGov.

 

And to become better prepared as an individual, family, business owner, or community to deal with hurricanes, or any other type of disaster: visit the following preparedness sites.

 

FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm

READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/

AMERICAN RED CROSS http://www.redcross.org/

Hurricane Preparedness Week & The Tale Of The Tape

 

 

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Today marks day 3 of NOAA’s National Hurricane Preparedness Week, and today’s emphasis is on hurricane force winds, and the extensive damage they can cause.

 

 

While storm surge is the greatest concern to those living in low-lying coastal areas, hurricane force winds can extend a hundred miles or more inland during a landfalling hurricane. Often hurricanes spin off tornadoes when they come ashore as well.

 

Hurricanes are measured by the Saffir-Simpson Scale, which bases their strength on sustained wind speeds.   Anything CAT 3 or higher is considered a major hurricane.

 

 

Even a CATEGORY 1 storm can spin up tornadoes, or produce wind gusts substantially stronger than their sustained wind speeds.  Older Mobile homes, RVs, and even some conventionally built structures may not withstand a CAT 1 storm.

 

And while great strides have been made over the past few decades in forecasting the path (out to about 48-72 hrs) of hurricanes, meteorologists are far less able to predict intensity changes of these storms. 

 

Just before landfall in 2004, Hurricane Charlie unexpectedly changed direction and ramped up from a moderate CAT 2 to storm to a major CAT 4 in just three hours, leaving coastal residents no time for evacuations.

 

If you live in a vulnerable area, you need to be aware of your evacuation zone, many of which have been recently revised due to a better understanding of storm surge, flooding, and wind damage risks.

 

Whether you stay, or leave, you’ll probably want to secure your home as best you can before high winds arrive. And this year emergency managers are once again reminding the public of the folly and futility of taping their windows in advance of a hurricane.

 

Up until the 1970s, it was pretty much standard advice to homeowners to tape plate glass windows to keep them from shattering, but that advice was discredited, and has not been part of hurricane prep advice for 30 years.

 

Not only does taping windows provide a false sense of security, it can bind shards of flying glass into larger, and more dangerous, projectiles.

 

Still, the myth hangs on.

 

A video that I’ve highlighted in the past, from the Pinellas County Office of Emergency Management demonstrates just how useless masking, or duct taping your your windows really is during a storm .

 

NOAA: Active Hurricane Season Ahead

NOAA National Hurricane Preparedness Week 

 

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As a native Floridian who has spent roughly 50 of his nearly 60 years living in the Sunshine state (with 15 of those years living aboard a variety of boats) – I have an understandable interest (read: `morbid fascination’) with hurricanes.

 

During much of my youth the Atlantic basin was in an active hurricane cycle, which provided me with an early education on these storms.

 

Here are the storm tracks of the hurricanes that crossed Florida during my youth, in the years between 1954-1972.

 

By the 1970s, the cycle had wound down, and by comparison, the next twenty years were relatively quiet, which fueled complacency and intense coastal construction. Here are the storms that came close between 1973 and 1994.

 

 

 

But we are back into an active tropical cycle, as yesterday’s announcement from NOAA reaffirms, with their prediction of another above average hurricane season ahead.

 

 

NOAA predicts active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season

Era of high activity for Atlantic hurricanes continues

May 23, 2013

Hurricane Sandy as seen from NOAA's GOES-13 satellite on October 28, 2012.

Download here (Credit:NOAA/NASA)

In its 2013 Atlantic hurricane season outlook issued today, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting an active or extremely active season this year.

 

For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA’s Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook says there is a 70 percent likelihood of 13 to 20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 7 to 11 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).

 

These ranges are well above the seasonal average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.

 

“With the devastation of Sandy fresh in our minds, and another active season predicted, everyone at NOAA is committed to providing life-saving forecasts in the face of these storms and ensuring that Americans are prepared and ready ahead of time.” said Kathryn Sullivan, Ph.D., NOAA acting administrator. “As we saw first-hand with Sandy, it’s important to remember that tropical storm and hurricane impacts are not limited to the coastline. Strong winds, torrential rain, flooding, and tornadoes often threaten inland areas far from where the storm first makes landfall.”

 

Three climate factors that strongly control Atlantic hurricane activity are expected to come together to produce an active or extremely active 2013 hurricane season. These are:

• A continuation of the atmospheric climate pattern, which includes a strong west African monsoon, that is responsible for the ongoing era of high activity for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995;
• Warmer-than-average water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea; and
• El Niño is not expected to develop and suppress hurricane formation.

“This year, oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the Atlantic basin are expected to produce more and stronger hurricanes,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “These conditions include weaker wind shear, warmer Atlantic waters and conducive winds patterns coming from Africa."

(Continue . . .)

 

 

While Floridians and Gulf Coast residents are a bit more cognizant of the hurricane threat, you don’t have to live in the south – or even near the coast – to be affected by these monster storms.

 

All next week we’ll be talking about hurricane (and `all hazards’) preparedness issues as part of National Hurricane Preparedness Week.

 

Whether you live in reach of one of these tropical systems or not, this coming week will be an opportune time to review your family and/or business disaster plans. 

 

Because we can’t know when the next disaster will strike, or even what form it may take.

 

We just know that they happen with disturbing regularity, and that the advantage always goes to those who were prepared.

Sandy Strengthens Overnight

 

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As predicted by the National Hurricane Center in  Miami, Sandy’s barometric pressure has dropped to an astonishing 946 millibars and its winds have increased to 85MPH, as it moves north at 15 mph.

 

Although a hurricane at present, Sandy is expected to transition into a post-tropical storm later today as it merges with a trough from the west and cold Arctic air.  

 

This transition will not diminish the storm’s impact, which is expected to be experienced over a wide area.

 

 

This from the 5am Advisory on Hurricane Sandy.

 

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012 500 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

...SANDY STRENGTHENS...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...COASTAL HURRICANE WINDS AND HEAVY APPALACHIAN SNOWS...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.9N 70.5W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM SSE OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES

 

 

 

Local radio & TV stations are streaming coverage over the Internet, including:

 

Watch Live: Hurricane Sandy Coverage – NBC NYC

 

Live storm coverage from Eyewitness News – ABC NYC

WINS 1010  News Radio 

The Very Model Of A Natural Disaster

Credit NHC 11am Sunday Track Map

 

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While it is impossible to know just how bad Hurricane-Hybrid Sandy will be as it approaches and crosses the eastern seaboard over the next 48 hours – or who, exactly, will be most affected – models continue to paint a sobering picture.

 

Tidal surge models from the National Hurricane Center suggest that large areas of the coastline could see storm tides 5-10 feet above normal. 

 

The following map is for a 5 ft surge:

 

Some models are suggesting that portions of New York Harbor could see tides exceeding 10 feet above normal, and the 11am advisory warns:

 

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...4 TO 6 FT

 

SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT

 

UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 3 FT

 

LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND NEW YORK HARBOR...6 TO 11 FT

 

ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT

 

CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS
BAY AND NARRAGANSETT BAY...3 TO 6 FT

 

 

Based on the forecast of surge tides, heavy rains, and high winds the City of New York will suspend mass transit routes starting at 7pm tonight.

 

Gov: MTA will suspend all subway, bus and rail service as Hurricane Sandy advances

Last subway and rail trains will be at 7; last bus at 9pm

By Shane Dixon Kavanaugh / NEW YORK DAILY NEWS

 

The last time the New York Subway system was shut down due to flooding was for Hurricane Irene in 2011.  The NYC MTA carries more than 8 million passengers on a typical weekday, and shutting down the entire system will take 8 to 10 hours (cite WSJ).

 

From Johns Hopkins University, we get this `model’ of possible power outages due to Sandy, based on current track forecasts.  

 

 

MEDIA ADVISORY: Hurricane Sandy – 10 million could lose power

As many as 10 million in the mid-Atlantic will lose power in the coming week, according to a computer model developed by an engineer at The Johns Hopkins University.

Please note: A multicolored map of power outage predictions is available. Email acl@jhu.edu

A map of power outages as predicted by Guikema’s model based on the official National Hurricane Center track and intensity forecast from 18UTC (3 p.m. EDT) on Saturday, Oct. 27.

 

An engineer at The Johns Hopkins University predicts that 10 million people from northern Virginia through New Jersey and into southeastern Pennsylvania will be without power in the wake of Hurricane Sandy. Seth Guikema (pronounced Guy-keh-ma) and his team have developed a computer model built on outage data from 11 hurricanes to estimate the fraction of customers who will lose power, based on expected gust wind speed, expected duration of strong winds greater than 20 meters per second, and population density. They ran their model using the official National Hurricane Center track and intensity forecast from 18UTC (3 p.m. EDT) on Saturday, and emphasize that the number of power outages could change as the storm progresses and forecasts become more definitive. It is possible that 10 million people is a conservative estimate, Guikema said.

 

Guikema’s model may help power companies allocate resources by predicting how many people will be without power and where the most outages will take place, and it provides information that emergency managers can use to better prepare for storms. Guikema, an assistant professor in the Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering at the Johns Hopkins Whiting School of Engineering, says the goal is to restore power faster and save customers money. Guikema will be running the model throughout the weekend and into next week as Hurricane Sandy makes landfall.

 

The Governor of New Jersey warned yesterday that power could be out for some residents for `seven to ten days’.  And for many people, that means no ability to cook, or to heat their homes.

 

Municipal water supplies, or water quality, could be affected as well.   Hence the need to be prepared to go several days - at least - without city services or utilities.

 

And while most people automatically worry about storm surge or high winds from hurricanes, between 1970 and 1999, the most lives have been claimed due to inland flooding. 

 

 

The NHC has released this five-day precipitation forecast, which should provide some idea of the extent of flooding that may occur.

 

 

 

While it is possible that Sandy won’t be as destructive as has been billed, storms like Camille, Andrew, and Katrina have shown us the folly of underestimating nature’s fury.

 

Today is the last day that people in the path of this storm will have to prepare. Those who are ordered to evacuate need to do so immediately.

 

 

To help track this storm, you may wish to revisit my blog from yesterday  Resources To Follow The Northeast Storm Online.

Resources To Follow The Northeast Storm Online

 

 

Credit NWS Binghamton,NY

 

# 6671

 

Hurricane Sandy is being billed as having the potential to become a major New England storm when it merges with a mid-latitude trough coming in from the west early next week. It is even being compared with the `perfect storm’ of 1991, and so local, state and Federal emergency planners are burning the midnight oil this weekend in preparation.

 

There is always the possibility that Sandy will prove less damaging than feared, but one can’t simply assume that the Mid-Atlantic and New England states will get lucky.

 

The internet provides a unique platform for watching Sandy’s trek across Northeastern states, with resources that include live coastal radars, NOAA weather radio broadcasts, streaming radio and TV coverage from cities all across the region,  beach front and traffic webcams and even scanners to listen to local emergency radio traffic.

 

For those in the path of the storm, or those with friends or family in the affected area, this can help provide valuable information as to what is going on during and after the storm.

 

And for those who are simply curious as to the impact of this hurricane, this is a convenient way to monitor it.

 

Disclaimer: These links are offered without warranty or endorsement (except for the NHC & NOAA links), and you visit them at your own risk.

 

It is always prudent to use up-to-date antivirus software, and decline to install any software from vendors you do not trust, when surfing the net.

 

Official sources are always your best option, so when it comes to getting the latest information on hurricanes, your first stop should be the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida.

 

These are the real experts, and the only ones you should rely on to track and forecast the storm.

 

To get their latest forecasts – particularly if the power is out in your area – you really need a battery operated Weather radio. Once thought of as mainly a source of local weather information, it has now become an `All-Hazards' alert system as well.

 

 

You’ll find that  NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards broadcasts are available online via live streaming audio hosted by other entities, like  Weather Underground. This allows you to listen to broadcasts outside of the range of your receiver.

 

The second official information source you should have bookmarked is your local Office of Emergency Management.  There you will find information about evacuation zones, shelters, and emergency decrees in your area.

 

If you are on Twitter, you should also follow @FEMA, @CraigatFEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific and @ReadydotGov.

 

You can access live feeds from the nation’s array of NEXRAD and TDWR radar installations, via this link at Weather Underground.

 

Live beach cams line the coast, and as this screen capture this morning from Kill Devil Hills, NC shows, the weather there is already deteriorating.

Raleigh broadcaster WRAL.Com has an interactive map with a number of these cams available.

The most extensive list of Northeastern Webcams I’ve found so far is HERE, although one should expect that some  of these will be out of commission as the storm approaches, or slow to load due to heavy internet traffic.

 

Live streaming radio on the internet has grown remarkably over the past few years, and this site has links to thousands of stations. Choose Radio Stations by State to narrow down your search.

 

 

 

Local, county and state emergency services frequencies (fire, police, EMS) can be assessed via RadioReference.com.  Their interactive maps allows you to first pick a state, and then drill down to the county you are looking for, where you’ll be presented with a list of feeds.

 

With more than 3,300 feeds there’s a pretty good chance you can monitor nearly every place in the country.

 

Hurricane City, a well known hurricane tracking site and forum, broadcasts on USTREAM when hurricanes approach the coast and you can watch it HERE.

 

You’ll also find live hurricane coverage and chaser cam footage from Mark Sudduth’s HurricaneTrack.com.

 

USTREAM, mentioned earlier, provides a venue for all types of broadcasting.  Enter  HURRICANE  or SANDY or FRANKENSTORM  in the search box for a list of current streaming video. You’ll find everything from storm chaser video to live feeds from hotels on the Altantic beaches.

 

Since anyone can broadcast on USTREAM, accept anything you see or hear cautiously. Still, USTREAM can be a terrific resource.

 

I’ll try to have more resources later, and will update this blog post if I find anything tonight. But this should give you a pretty good start on following the storm.

Preparing For After The Storm Passes

 

Minimum Preps : Emergency Weather Radio, First Aid Kit, Battery Lantern, Water storage

 

# 6664

 

 

Although still battering the Bahamas, Hurricane Sandy is looking increasingly like it will pose a threat to the United States Mid-Atlantic and New England regions over the next 3 or 4 days. 

 

Exactly how strong it will be, and what areas it will impact are unknown, although the following graphic from the National Hurricane Center’s 5am forecast gives us some pretty good ideas. 

 

 

As hurricanes move north they often expand in size, rather than strength. Even when they lose their tropical characteristics (become a post-tropical storm) their winds can remain very strong, but are less centralized.

 

In other words, whether Sandy remains a hurricane all the way to landfall is of little consequence.  This storm has the potential to cause a lot damage and disruption over a wide area.

 

Inland flooding, coastal flooding, and power outages are  likely threats, although substantial wind damage - and even tornadoes - are possible as well.

 

Those in the path of this storm who have extra food, water, provisions for emergency lighting, a first aid kit, an emergency weather radio, and a family emergency plan are likely to fare far better than those who fail to prepare.

 

The next 48 - 72 hours provides an excellent opportunity for those who have not already done so to put together their family emergency plan and to lay in any last minute provisions.

 

Often the real danger comes after the storm has passed - during the cleanup and recovery period - when utilities and other services may be out for days.

 

So with that in mind, a review this morning of food safety after the power goes out, storm cleanup and chainsaw safety, and the dangers of carbon monoxide poisoning from generators.

 

Food safety after a power outage is often a concern after a storm, something I covered back in 2010 in USDA: Food Safety When The Power Goes Out.  

 

A few excerpts include:

 

The USDA maintains a Food Safety and Inspection website with a great deal of consumer information about how to protect your food supplies during an emergency, and how to tell when to discard food that may no longer be safe to consume.

 

First, an audio podcast (5 minutes).

Surviving a Power Outage: Don't Be in the Dark When it Comes to Food Safety (Jun 2, 2010; 4:45) | Script

FSIS Food Safety staff discusses tips on how to be food safe during a power outage.

 

The USDA also maintains a large repository of food safety information available to be read online, or downloaded as a pdf.

 

A Consumer's Guide to Food Safety: Severe Storms and Hurricanes

Note: This text-only version of the Guide has been optimized for accessibility. The illustrated PDF version (2.1MB) is recommended for printing.

 

 

Regarding post-storm cleanup, the the Peachtree City, Georgia NOAA weather page has some useful information, including dealing with repair contractors.

 

This is just an excerpt, follow the link for a lot more:

 

Safety After the Storm

Here are just a few safety tips...

• Be aware of hazards from exposed nails and broken glass.
• Do not touch downed power lines or objects in contact with downed lines. Report electrical hazards to the police and the utility company.
• If it is dark when you are inspecting your home, use a flashlight rather than a candle or torch to avoid the risk of fire or explosion in a damaged home.
• If you see frayed wiring or sparks, or if there is an odor of something burning, you should immediately shut off the electrical system at the main circuit breaker if you have not done so already.
• If you smell gas or suspect a leak, turn off the main gas valve, open all windows, and leave the house immediately. Notify the gas company, the police or fire departments, or State Fire Marshal's office, and do not turn on the lights, light matches, smoke, or do anything that could cause a spark. Do not return to your house until you are told it is safe to do so.
• For more information, visit the Centers for Disease and Prevention. They have a wealth of information about what to do in the aftermath of all sorts of events - like tornadoes, floods, hurricanes, and many more.

 

Chainsaw accidents are common after storms as people work under adverse conditions to clear debris.  The CDC maintains a chainsaw safety webpage.  Excerpts follow:

 

Preventing Chain Saw Injuries During Tree Removal After a Disaster

Be aware of the risk of chain saw injury during tree removal

Each year, approximately 36,000 people are treated in hospital emergency departments for injuries from using chain saws. The potential risk of injury increases after hurricanes and other natural disasters, when chain saws are widely used to remove fallen or partially fallen trees and tree branches.

 

Gasoline generators, along with improvised cooking and heating facilities, can put people at risk of Carbon Monoxide poisoning. Each year, hundreds of Americans die from exposure to this odorless and colorless gas.

 

With chilly temperatures forecast after the storm - and the possibility of widespread  power outages - the potential for this sort of preventable tragedy in the post-storm period can’t be ignored.

 

In Carbon Monoxide: A Stealthy Killer I wrote in depth on the issue, but a few tips from the CDC include:

 

Prevention Guidelines

You Can Prevent Carbon Monoxide Exposure

• Do have your heating system, water heater and any other gas, oil, or coal burning appliances serviced by a qualified technician every year.
• Do install a battery-operated CO detector in your home and check or replace the battery when you change the time on your clocks each spring and fall. If the detector sounds leave your home immediately and call 911.
• Do seek prompt medical attention if you suspect CO poisoning and are feeling dizzy, light-headed, or nauseous.
• Don't use a generator, charcoal grill, camp stove, or other gasoline or charcoal-burning device inside your home, basement, or garage or near a window.
• Don't run a car or truck inside a garage attached to your house, even if you leave the door open.
• Don't burn anything in a stove or fireplace that isn't vented.
• Don't heat your house with a gas oven.

 

 

And as a last stop on our preparedness tour, a visit to the CDC’s Emergency Preparedness and Response  website, which provides advice on a variety of post-storm topics including electrical and fire hazards, mosquitoes, mold, unstable buildings and structures, and the dangers posed by wild and stray animals.

 

 

Prevent and Treat Other Illnesses and Injuries After a Hurricane or Flood

 

 

 

While many believe the worst will be over once the storm has passed, in truth, often the biggest challenges are found during the days and weeks that follow.

 

For more preparedness information I would invite you to visit:

 

FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm

READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/

AMERICAN RED CROSS http://www.redcross.org/