Avian Flu Diary: Dr. Gray’s Tropical Update & Waiting For Emily To Curve

# 5733

The forecast tracks of weak or poorly organized tropical systems are often harder to predict than those of more robust storms, and the currently disheveled T.S. Emily off the southern coast of Hispaniola is no exception.

Which helps to explain the spread in this morning’s `spaghetti’ model runs in the graphic above. Most, but not all, of the models show the storm curving away from the state of Florida.

While there are signs it may be starting to happen, for nearly 36 hours computer models have been predicting a curve to the north, and yet Emily has stubbornly stayed on a westerly path.

The latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center now has Emily beginning to move on a more WNW course, which ought to take it across the western tip of Haiti later today.

As discussed previously, the accompanying flooding rains are likely to exacerbate the already difficult conditions on the island of Hispaniola in the wake of last year’s massive earthquake and the ongoing Cholera epidemic.

000
WTNT35 KNHC 040849
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
500 AM EDT THU AUG 04 2011

...CENTER OF EMILY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 71.7W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSW OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

From the 5am Discussion:

THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII DO NOT REQUIRE A WATCH FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA AT THIS TIME.

IF EMILY DOES NOT BEGIN ITS NORTHWESTWARD TURN SOON...A WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 17.3N 71.7W   45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 17.9N 72.7W   45 KT 50 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 20.0N 74.5W   40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 22.5N 76.2W   45 KT 50 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 24.7N 77.6W   50 KT 60 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 28.5N 78.5W   60 KT 70 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 32.5N 74.5W   65 KT 75 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 36.0N 65.0W   60 KT 70 MPH

For now, the Bahamas would appear to be at greatest risk of a visit from Emily, but residents in Florida need to keep tabs on this storm as there is still a degree uncertainty regarding its future movement.

If you are on Twitter, you should can follow @FEMA, @CraigatFEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific and @ReadydotGov for the latest Emergency information.

Meanwhile, Dr. William Gray and Philip J. Klotchbach of Colorado State University’s Department of Atmospheric Science have released their latest tropical outlook for the remainder of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

This outlook is essentially unchanged from their earlier predictions.

FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2011

(as of 3 August 2011)

Information obtained through July 2011 indicates that the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season will be much more active than the average 1950-2000 season. We estimate that 2011 will have about 9 hurricanes (average is 5.9), 16 named storms (average is 9.6), 80 named storm days (average is 49.1), 35 hurricane days (average is 24.5), 5 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and 10 major hurricane days (average is 5.0).

The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall and Caribbean major hurricane activity is estimated to be well above its long-period average. We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2011 to be approximately 175 percent of the long term average season. We have maintained our seasonal forecast from early April and early June.

(Continue . . . )

As the graph below shows, we are just now getting into the heart of the tropical season, and the threat of hurricanes and tropical storms run through the month of November.

Good enough reasons to take the tropical weather threat seriously and make whatever preparations you can before a storm threatens you, your family, or your business.

To become better prepared as an individual, family, business owner, or community to deal with hurricanes, or any other type of disaster: visit the following preparedness sites.