Photo Credit NOAA GOES East
# 5773
Having avoided crossing the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola, Hurricane Irene continues to intensify and move towards the Bahamas as a CATAGORY 2 storm.
Model guidance has finally consolidated, and for now the news is much improved for Florida and the Gulf of Mexico, but not so good for those residing further up the Eastern seaboard.
But first, Irene is expected to move across the entire length of the Bahamas as a major hurricane.
Although most of Florida is now out of the forecast track, the NHC reminds the public not to focus on the exact forecast track . . . especially at days 4 and 5 . . . since the most recent 5-year average errors at those forecast times are 200 and 250 miles respectively.
Since this forecast track could change further, it is important for all interests along the Atlantic seaboard to follow the National Hurricane Center’s tracking of this storm.
For now, the thinking is that Irene will become an unusually large storm, with Category 3 winds, and that it will likely cross the Bahamas over the next 48 hours and threaten the coastline from Georgia north to Virginia over the weekend.
From the 8/23 5am NHC Discussion
Those residing even hundreds of miles from the forecast track may experience significant effects from this storm, including high winds and heavy rains - and along the coast - beach erosion and rip currents.
The latest Tropical Storm Force Wind Probabilities map includes a good sized chunk of the Southeast.
And even those living hundreds of miles inland need to be paying attention to this storm, as I wrote in You Don’t Have To Live On The Coast, inland flooding can be a major cause of death and destruction from these landfalling hurricanes.
Tornadoes can spin up from these landfalling systems, often hundreds of miles inland, as well.
As always, the National Hurricane Center website should be your primary source of forecast information, but if you are on Twitter, you should also follow @FEMA, @CraigatFEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific and @ReadydotGov for the latest Emergency information.
To become better prepared as an individual, family, business owner, or community to deal with hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, or any other type of disaster: visit the following preparedness sites.
FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm
READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/
AMERICAN RED CROSS http://www.redcross.org/
