# 6344
In late May, just before the start of the Atlantic Hurricane season, we get a number extended outlooks that attempt to predict the amount of tropical activity we might expect to see over the next six months.
Earlier this year Professor William Gray and Phillip Klotzbach of Colorado University’s Department of Atmospheric Science released their updated 2012 Extended-Range Hurricane Forecast for the Atlantic Tropical basin, where they called for a below-average hurricane season (see It Only Takes One).
Gray and Klotzbach will provide an updated outlook again in early June.
Today, NOAA has released their extended outlook, and after several very active years, they are calling for a 70% chance of seeing a `normal’ hurricane season.
Here are some excerpts from today’s story.
NOAA predicts a near-normal 2012 Atlantic hurricane season
Anniversary of Hurricane Andrew underscores necessity to prepare every year
May 24, 2012
Conditions in the atmosphere and the ocean favor a near-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin this season, NOAA announced today from Miami at its Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, and home to the Hurricane Research Division.
For the entire six-month season, which begins June 1, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says there’s a 70 percent chance of nine to 15 named storms (with top winds of 39 mph or higher), of which four to eight will strengthen to a hurricane (with top winds of 74 mph or higher) and of those one to three will become major hurricanes (with top winds of 111 mph or higher, ranking Category 3, 4 or 5). Based on the period 1981-2010, an average season produces 12 named storms with six hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
“NOAA’s outlook predicts a less active season compared to recent years,” said NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D. “But regardless of the outlook, it’s vital for anyone living or vacationing in hurricane-prone locations to be prepared. We have a stark reminder this year with the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Andrew.” Andrew, the Category 5 hurricane that devastated South Florida on August 24, 1992, was the first storm in a late-starting season that produced only six named storms.
Favoring storm development in 2012: the continuation of the overall conditions associated with the Atlantic high-activity era that began in 1995, in addition to near-average sea surface temperatures across much of the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, known as the Main Development Region. Two factors now in place that can limit storm development, if they persist, are: strong wind shear, which is hostile to hurricane formation in the Main Development Region, and cooler sea surface temperatures in the far eastern Atlantic.
“Another potentially competing climate factor would be El Niño if it develops by late summer to early fall. In that case, conditions could be less conducive for hurricane formation and intensification during the peak months (August-October) of the season, possibly shifting the activity toward the lower end of the predicted range,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
Next week will kick off Hurricane Preparedness Week, and again this year I’ll have a number of blogs on the subject.
And just as a reminder:
The NHC has two Twitter accounts, one for the Atlantic basin (which includes the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea):
U.S. National Hurricane Center (Atlantic) - @NHC_Atlantic
and one for the Eastern North Pacific basin:
U.S. National Hurricane Center (Eastern Pacific) - @NHC_Pacific
In addition to the Twitter notifications, NHC also provides product notifications by email. Please visit hurricanes.gov/signup.shtml to sign up for this service.
And if you aren’t already following
on twitter, you might want to add them to your list.
