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This morning the ECDC published a brief Rapid Risk Assessment on the Legionella outbreak in Scotland that has been ongoing for about two weeks (for earlier reports see here, and here).
According to NHS Lothian, which is the local public health authority running point on the investigation, the number of cases has remained steady over the past couple of days at 88 (see Update - 13/06/2012).
Yesterday Health Secretary Nicola Sturgeon was quoted as saying:
“These numbers today again offer reassurance that the worst of the outbreak is over. The increase of confirmed cases and reduction in the suspected cases is in line with our expectations. However, there is no room for complacency and we will continue to monitor the situation very closely over the coming days.
A link to the 4-page ECDC risk assessment, and a few excerpts, follows:
Rapid risk assessment: A community outbreak of Legionnaires' disease in Edinburgh, Scotland
Technical reports - 14 Jun 2012
Available as PDF in the following languages:
This document is free of charge.
ABSTRACT
ECDC assessed the risk to the EU related to the community outbreak of Legionnaires' disease in Edinburgh, Scotland.
In the absence of an identified and controlled source of Legionella, there may be an ongoing risk of exposure for persons living or visiting the area, although the risk is assessed to be low for the general public due to implemented control measures.
Main conclusions and recommendations
Eighty-eight cases of Legionnaires’ disease, of which one was fatal, have occurred in the south-western part of Edinburgh since 24 May 2012 when the first case was reported to have fallen ill.
Although the exact source of the outbreak has not yet been identified, the clustering of cases in the south-western part of Edinburgh and the evolving number of cases suggests an ongoing source in this part of the city. Environmental investigations to confirm the source and treatment of local cooling towers in the area are ongoing. The implementation of precautionary control measures at any identified suspected risk installations
are of utmost importance to decrease the risk of exposure.
In the absence of an identified and controlled source of Legionella, there may be an ongoing risk of exposure to Legionella for persons living or visiting the area, although the risk is assessed to be low for the general public due to implemented control measures.
The risk for Legionnaires’ disease should be considered higher for persons above 40 years of age, smokers and immune-compromised persons. For this group, timely diagnosis and appropriate treatment will be particularly important.
As Legionnaires’ disease cannot be transmitted from human to human, the risk for the EU remains very limited apart from susceptible people visiting the affected areas.
The information given to members of the public about their potential exposure is important to ensure timely diagnosis and appropriate treatment. This has been addressed by the Scottish authorities by setting up a telephone hotline.
For a brief history of the discovery of Legionnaires disease you may wish to revisit my blog from last week called The Legionella Outbreak in South West Edinburgh. You’ll also find more information on Legionella on the NHS website:
Legionnaires' disease
Introduction
Legionnaires’ disease is a potentially fatal lung infection (pneumonia) that is caused by the legionella bacteria. Legionnaires’ disease is caught by breathing in small droplets of contaminated water. It is not contagious and cannot be spread directly from person to person.
Initial symptoms include a high fever and muscle pain. Once the bacteria begin to infect your lungs, you may also develop a persistent cough (see Legionnaires disease - symptoms). Prompt treatment using antibiotics is essential to reduce the risk of death. See Legionnaires’ disease - treatment for more information.
