Mariner’s Poem On Hurricanes
June too soon.
July stand by.
August look out you must.
September remember.
October all over.- Published in “Weather Lore” by R. Inwards in 1898
# 6412
Typically tropical activity in the Atlantic and Caribbean doesn’t really begin to pick up in earnest until August, although as the chart above illustrates, in some years we do see storms in June and July.
In 2005 we saw 3 storms (Cindy, Dennis, Emily) develop in the first half of July, and so far this year, we’ve already seen 4 named storms.
According to The National Hurricane Center in Miami, right now things are pretty quiet in the Atlantic tropical basin, but that could quickly change.
8am July 1st, 2012 – NHC
Below you’ll see the the areas that historically have spawned tropical systems in July.
Unlike later in the year when we watch for long-track storms to form in the Cape Verde basin, cyclone genesis is more apt to occur in the shallower, earlier to warm waters, closer to the United States and the Caribbean.
Over the next several months we are likely to see dozens of areas of suspicion develop in the Atlantic and Caribbean. Many will likely fizzle . . . but long range forecasts are calling for as many as 15 of these to become named storms, and 4 to 8 to be hurricanes.
How many of those will make landfall is unknown, but it only takes one major storm to ruin your entire day.
As an example, the 1992 hurricane season was particularly quiet, without a named storm forming until August. But that first storm was Andrew – the infamous CAT 5 monster that devastated south Florida.
Which means that if you live anywhere within reach of one of these storms (and that can be hundreds of miles inland), you need to be reviewing your hurricane plans now.
Every year I give hurricane preparedness a prominent place in this blog because more than 50 million Americans live in susceptible coastal areas (along with millions more in other countries).
Live along the coastline long enough, and the odds say you’ll be visited by one of these storms.
From Escambia County Hurricane Preparedness Information
The end of May was National Hurricane Preparedness week, and a few of my blogs on the subject included:
Hurricane Preparedness Week: Taking Action
Hurricane Preparedness Week: Inland Flooding
A Matter Of Respect
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) should be your primary source of information on tropical threats. In addition to visiting their website, they issue alert via two Twitter accounts, one for the Atlantic basin (which includes the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea):
and one for the Eastern North Pacific basin:
In addition to the Twitter notifications, NHC also provides product notifications by email. Please visit hurricanes.gov/signup.shtml to sign up for this service.
And if you aren’t already following
on twitter, you might want to add them to your list.
And finally, if you haven’t already downloaded the Tropical Cyclone Preparedness Guide, now would be an excellent time to do so. It is a short (12-page), easy to follow guide that will walk you through the basics of understanding (and surviving) hurricanes and tropical storms.
The time to prepare for a hurricane, or any other disaster, is now . . . while the sun is shining, and you have the time and resources to do it right.
