# 6484
NOAA releases a forecast at the start of each hurricane season, and usually revises it in early August, based on climatologically changes they’ve seen over the previous 90 days.
In late May (see NOAA: `Near Normal’ Hurricane Season Predicted) estimates were that we could expect:
- 9-15 Named storms
- 4-8 Hurricanes
- 1- 3 Major Hurricanes
Today, after a fast start to the first two months of the tropical season (6 named storms), NOAA has revised their estimates upward slightly.
Here is the press release:
NOAA raises hurricane season prediction despite expected El Niño
Updated outlook calls for near- or above-normal Atlantic season
August 9, 2012
Satellite image of Hurricane Ernesto taken on Aug. 7, 2012 in the Gulf of Mexico.
(Credit: NOAA)
This year’s Atlantic hurricane season got off to a busy start, with 6 named storms to date, and may have a busy second half, according to the updated hurricane season outlook issued today by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. The updated outlook still indicates a 50 percent chance of a near-normal season, but increases the chance of an above-normal season to 35 percent and decreases the chance of a below-normal season to only 15 percent from the initial outlook issued in May.
Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the season – June 1 to November 30 – NOAA’s updated seasonal outlook projects a total (which includes the activity-to-date of tropical storms Alberto, Beryl, Debbie, Florence and hurricanes Chris and Ernesto) of:
- 12 to 17 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:
- 5 to 8 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:
- 2 to 3 could be major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)
And as Ernesto moves across Central America, making a bid for a Pacific rebirth, we’ve another area in the mid Atlantic that the National Hurricane Center gives a 70% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.
NHC at 11am August 9th, 2012.
Every year I give hurricane preparedness a prominent place in this blog because more than 50 million Americans live in susceptible coastal areas (along with millions more in other countries).
From Escambia County Hurricane Preparedness Information
The end of May was National Hurricane Preparedness week, and a few of my blogs on the subject included:
Hurricane Preparedness Week: Taking Action
Hurricane Preparedness Week: Inland Flooding
A Matter Of Respect
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) should be your primary source of information on tropical threats. In addition to visiting their website, they issue alert via two Twitter accounts, one for the Atlantic basin (which includes the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea):
and one for the Eastern North Pacific basin:
In addition to the Twitter notifications, NHC also provides product notifications by email. Please visit hurricanes.gov/signup.shtml to sign up for this service.
And if you aren’t already following
on twitter, you might want to add them to your list.
And finally, if you haven’t already downloaded the Tropical Cyclone Preparedness Guide, now would be an excellent time to do so. It is a short (12-page), easy to follow guide that will walk you through the basics of understanding (and surviving) hurricanes and tropical storms.
