# 7185
Even before this morning’s announcement that Taiwan Confirms First Imported Case Of H7N9, health experts around the globe have been fully expecting that cases would eventually show up outside of mainland China.
Last week, in a Q&A on the virus, the CDC matter-of-factly stated:
Is it possible that human cases of H7N9 flu will be found in the United States?
Yes. The most likely scenario for this right now would be H7N9 infection in a traveler from China. Many people travel between China and the United States. CDC issued a health alert for public health officials and clinicians in the United States to be on the look-out for flu symptoms in travelers who are returning from countries with bird flu. CDC has issued guidance for isolating, testing, and treating such patients.
However, since this virus does not seem to be spreading easily from person-to-person, a few cases in the United States with travel links to China would not change the risk of infection for the general public in the United States.
As long as the virus is difficult to transmit from human-to-human, then small importations of the virus would not be terribly alarming, and could likely be handled.
But health experts also recognize that this virus could mutate and gain more transmissibility, and pose a greater threat. Which is why in Japan they are strengthening their ability to respond to a public health crisis with new legislation.
The Japan Times is reporting this morning on a variety of measures Japan’s government plans to implement to allow them to combat any potential pandemic threat, including designating H7N9 as a quarantinable infectious disease.
Based on the reporting in this article, when the government `strongly advises’ its citizens to stay home if they are sick, they apparently mean it.
First a link to the story, then I’ll be back with a little more.
H7N9 defense measures prepared
Kyodo, JIJI Apr 24, 2013
To defend against the H7N9 strain of bird flu rapidly spreading in China, governors will be authorized to “strongly advise” people who are sick or suspected of being infected with the disease to be hospitalized and to restrict their employment, according to countermeasures compiled Wednesday by a health ministry panel.
Those who ignore the orders will face punishment.
Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry officials said ordinances under the Infectious Disease Law and the Quarantine Law will be revised early next month.
While this may seem a bit premature, given the lack of sustained human-to-human transmission of the H7N9 virus, Japan is no stranger to taking a proactive stance against potential pandemic threats.
Six years ago, when the H5N1 virus was on everyone’s threat radar, Japan produced a vaccine, generated a comprehensive pandemic plan, and conducted numerous drills.
With populous and densely packed cities, Japan recognized just how vulnerable they would be in a pandemic.
In early 2009, before the H1N1 pandemic broke out, we saw some of their concerns addressed in Japan Runs The Numbers.
In a study conducted by Japan's National Institute of Infectious Diseases, they considered the interventions that would be needed in order to reduce the impact of a severe pandemic.
Out of a population of roughly 34 million (just in Tokyo), they theorized half could become infected with a novel pandemic strain if no efforts were made to reduce human contact.
The higher the attack rate, the greater of an impact a pandemic would have on society, health care providers, and the economy. And of course, the greater the human toll as well.
By closing all schools, and reducing commuter traffic by 40%, they believed they could reduce the attack rate to a more manageable 25%.
Another drill, conducted in 2008, tested the feasibility of running limited rail service (essential in Japan) during a pandemic.
Flu epidemic measures tested on train riders
Kyodo News
Dec 23, 2008
A research institute for the transport ministry conducted a test Monday on how far apart passengers should be while riding on commuter trains in the event of a new type of influenza outbreak.
Safe distance: In a test of passenger control steps to be taken during a possible flu epidemic, officials from a labor ministry research institute measure the distance between mask-wearing subjects in Adachi Ward, Tokyo, on Monday. KYODO PHOTO
While it is far too soon to know if they will be needed, now wouldn’t be such a bad time for all governments, organizations, and businesses to dust off, and update, their pandemic plans.
Just in case.
