SFH Briefing On H7N9 April 5th – Credit HK Govt
# 7084
Although no one is taking the outbreak of H7N9 in China lightly, and there remains much about this virus we obviously do not know, for now the number of reported cases remains low (n=16) and there are no obvious signs of sustained human-to-human transmission.
That is not to say that H2H transmission has not occurred (officials are investigating of a couple of `suspected clusters’), and there may well be undiagnosed cases circulating in the community.
Events, or at least our knowledge of them, are apt to change quickly and often over the next few days and weeks.
For now, while we know very little about the sensitivity or specificity of the H7N9 tests being used, the lack of reports of secondary infections among close contacts of those known to be infected have been reassuring.
That said, influenza viruses are constantly evolving.
If this virus isn’t transmitting well between humans today, that happy state of affairs may not hold true tomorrow, next week, or next month. The sudden appearance of H7N9 in humans (see chart below) is ample proof of how quickly a flu virus can change behavior.
Dr. Ian MacKay’s Terrific Timeline of Human Cases - VDU
Which helps explain why the ECDC, CDC, World Health Organization, and Hong Kong’ Centre for Health Protection are viewing these events so seriously.
While getting accurate and timely reports out of China can sometimes be difficult, I believe we can get our best idea of the current threat level based on how Hong Kong officials react each day.
Arguably, no city was hit harder during the 2003 SARS outbreak (see SARS And Remembrance) – and their Centre for Health Protection (which was created as a result of that epidemic) - has a reputation for taking an open and proactive stance against communicable disease threats.
This report on statements this morning from Hong Kong’s Secretary of Food & Health – Dr. Ko Wing-man – are from news.gov.hk.
Human-to-human bird flu spread risk 'low'
April 06, 2013
Secretary for Food & Health Dr Ko Wing-man says the Government has assessed the risk of human-to-human transmission of the new H7N9 avian influenza virus to be low since most infected patients have had contact with poultry.
Speaking to the media after attending a radio programme this morning, Dr Ko said the Department of Health, the Centre for Health Protection, the Hospital Authority, the Food & Environmental Hygiene Department and the Agriculture, Fisheries & Conservation Department conducted an internal risk assessment yesterday.
He said their assessment is that the risk of human-to-human transmission of the virus is still low.
Most of the infected patients have a history of contact with poultry and therefore a prevention strategy will focus on poultry control, he said.
“That is why we have arranged a meeting with the Mainland authorities to introduce an H7 [avian influenza] rapid test on poultry imported from the Mainland as well as those within Hong Kong,” Dr Ko said.
He said the Government will also strengthen control at immigration checkpoints, and additional staff will be deployed to reinforce the body temperature checks for incoming passengers.
After the SARS outbreak in 2003, public hospitals have enhanced their isolation facilities capacity, he said.
The authority has 1,400 isolation beds, he said, adding this is in line with a strategy to identify and isolate suspected cases early and carry out rapid testing as soon as possible.
