Photo Credit NOAA
# 7523
Mariner’s Poem On Hurricanes
June too soon.
July stand by.
August look out you must.
September remember.
October all over.- Published in “Weather Lore” by R. Inwards in 1898
As a native Floridian, and a long-time boater, I’m used to keeping a weather-eye out year round. But come the 1st of August my attention grows keener, and my gaze moves eastward, as the next three months are historically the time when the Atlantic produces the most dangerous tropical activity.
As you can see by the chart at the top of this post, the peak of the hurricane season comes in the second week of September, and then slowly tapers off.
Hurricanes are driven by the heat of the oceans, and so they tend to form over the shallower Caribbean and Gulf waters – which heat up fastest in the summer – first. The map below shows the areas likely to produce tropical systems in June.
By early August, the deeper waters of the eastern and middle Atlantic have soaked up enough heat to make them fertile breeding grounds as well. These storms are also likely to be stronger, and longer lasting.
This morning finds the Atlantic basin fairly quiet, with only the remnants of T.S. Dorian – which sputtered and died last week on its way across the Atlantic – given a 50% chance of resurrection.
Credit NHC Jul 29th, 2013
But as we saw last May, NOAA: Expects An Active Hurricane Season Ahead. Their prediction:
NOAA’s Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook says there is a 70 percent likelihood of 13 to 20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 7 to 11 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
This year’s relatively slow start to the hurricane season tells us very little about the months ahead. Horrific Category 5 hurricane Andrew in 1992 – the first named storm of that season – didn’t show up until mid-August.
When it comes to getting the latest information on hurricanes, your first stop should always be the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida. These are the real pros, and the only ones you should rely on to track and forecast the storm.
- Tropical storm watches will be issued when tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast within 48 hours.
- Tropical storm warnings will be issued when those conditions are expected within 36 hours. Similar increases in lead-time will apply to hurricane watches and warnings.
NOAA’s NWS National Hurricane Center in Miami also has a Facebook page, where you can keep up with the latest tropical developments.
The second official information source you should have bookmarked is your local Office of Emergency Management. Here you’ll be able to access local warnings, flood maps and evacuation information.
To find your local one, you can Google or Yahoo search with your county/parish name and the words `Emergency Management’.
If you are on Twitter, you should also follow @FEMA, @CraigatFEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific and @ReadyGov.
If you haven’t already downloaded the Tropical Cyclone Preparedness Guide, now would be an excellent time to do so. It is a short (12-page), easy to follow guide that will walk you through the basics of understanding (and surviving) hurricanes and tropical storms.
Although September is National Preparedness Month, those who potentially live in the path of these storms (and that can be hundreds of miles inland) are urged every year to prepare in May, during National Hurricane Preparedness Week.
Some of my blogs on getting ready for this year’s tropical season include:
Hurricane Preparedness Week: Day 6 & 7
Grady Norton: The First Hurricane Forecaster
Hurricane Preparedness Week: Inland Flooding
