Avian Flu Diary: NOAA: Major Severe Weather Outbreak Predicted

# 7983

We’ve seen fewer than normal outbreaks of severe weather across the nation over the past 18 months, but when they have occurred (see Picking Up The Pieces) some have produced significant damage and loss of life.

Overnight NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has issued a forecast for a Major Severe Weather Outbreak today and/or tonight, with the greatest risks spread across parts of Illinois and Indiana.

ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 170849
ILZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-MIZ000-OHZ000-WIZ000-171800-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO MICHIGAN TODAY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...

The NWS Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma is forecasting the development of a few strong, long-track tornadoes over parts of the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into Michigan today through early tonight.

The areas most likely to experience this activity include:

       Illinois
       Indiana
       Northern and Western Kentucky
       Lower Michigan
       Ohio
       Southeast Wisconsin

Surrounding this greatest risk region, severe thunderstorms will also be possible from parts of Wisconsin, Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee northeastward across much of the
Appalachians to the lower Great Lakes.

A potent jet stream disturbance with wind speeds in excess of 120 knots will sweep east across the central Plains today and across the Ohio Valley and northern half of the Appalachians tonight. As this
occurs, a surface low now over the mid-Mississippi Valley will rapidly intensify and accelerate northeastward, reaching northern Michigan early tonight and western Quebec Monday morning.

East of the low, increasingly warm and humid air at the surface will spread north across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, contributing to very unstable conditions over a large part of the east central United States. Coupled with daytime heating and ascent provided the jet stream impulse, the environment will become very favorable for severe thunderstorms --- especially along and ahead of fast-moving cold front trailing southward from the low into the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.

Given the degree of thermodynamic instability, and the strength and character of the winds through the depth of the atmosphere, many of the storms will become supercells. Some of these will be capable of
producing strong tornadoes --- in addition to large hail and swaths of damaging surface winds.

The storms are expected to consolidate into one or two extensive lines later today into tonight --- extending the threat for damaging winds and isolated tornadoes eastward into the Appalachians by early Monday.

State and local emergency managers are monitoring this potentially very dangerous situation. Those in the threatened area are urged to review severe weather safety rules and to listen to radio, television, and NOAA Weather Radio for possible watches, warnings, and statements later today.

..Corfidi.. 11/17/2013

For everyone – but particularly for those who live in the forecast area - now would be a good time to to double check your NOAA weather radio, flashlights, and first aid kit. You should also have food and water stored to last a minimum of 3 days. If you can manage it, having a week or more is even better.

NOAA Radio

You should also review your family’s emergency communication plan - and if you haven’t already done so - decide where you would go in your home or business if severe weather threatens.

Every home and office should have a NOAA weather radio. Once thought of as mainly a source of local weather information, it has now become an `All-Hazards' alert system as well.

In order to receive these broadcasts, you need a special receiver. Many of these radios have a built in `Tone Alert', and will begin playing once they receive a special alert signal from the broadcaster. To keep track of severe storm forecasts, you can visit NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center online. There you’ll find interactive maps showing current and anticipated severe weather threats all across the nation.

We often get a head’s up, and time to prepare for severe storms. But the same cannot be said for earthquakes, tsunamis, terrorist and/or cyber attacks, power outages, brush or forest fires, and chemical spills or industrial accidents.