Avian Flu Diary: Cognitive Inertia, Preparedness & The 1918 Pandemic Flu

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Cognitive Inertia – the tendency for beliefs or opinions to endure once formed – is a double-edged sword. It can help bring stability and a sense of permanence to our lives and relationships, while at the same time, it can blind us to changing, and sometimes hazardous, situations.

A fairly recent example was the overwhelming belief that the levees protecting New Orleans would hold during Hurricane Katrina. An assumption which no doubt contributed to the failure of some to evacuate – or even to prepare - for the arrival of that deadly storm.

The levees had, after all, always held before. The city had successfully faced bigger storms in the past, and in recent decades, the storms had always seemed to veer away at the last moment. Many people were simply convinced – by their past experiences with hurricanes - that Katrina would turn out to be an overblown threat.

Indeed, despite dozens of disasters across the nation each year, and yearly reminders to the American public by FEMA and Ready.gov of the importance of having a disaster plan, a first aid kit, and some basic supplies in their homes, roughly half of all households still haven’t made even basic preparations for a disaster.

Similar cognitive inertia can be seen in the refusal of many poultry farmers in Asia to believe that their birds could be carrying a deadly avian flu virus, or more recently, in Saudi Arabia, accepting that camels might pose infection risk from the MERS coronavirus.

After all, generations of their ancestors raised these animals without falling ill.

Our perception of risks is based primarily on our previous experiences. Those who live in relatively stable environments are less likely to anticipate or appreciate the effects of abrupt, and sometimes hazardous, changes.

While we like to think that our great-grandparents were a lot smarter in this regard (and better prepared to deal with emergencies and disasters), a new study that appears in the Journal History of Medicine & Allied Science suggests that cognitive inertia was alive and well 95 years ago during the lead up to the 1918 pandemic.

To be fair, there was a good deal of wartime censorship of pandemic flu reports – particularly during the spring and summer of 1918 – that may have led to some complacency. But despite the downplaying of the threat, most people were aware that a pandemic was coming, and few did anything to prepare for its arrival.

Waiting for the Flu: Cognitive Inertia and the Spanish Influenza Pandemic of 1918–19

Tom Dicke

Department of History, Missouri State University, Springfield, Missouri.

Email: tomdicke@missouristate.edu

Abstract

This study looks at public awareness and understanding of the Spanish flu in the United States between June 1918, when the flu became “Spanish,” and the end of September when the deadly second wave reached the majority of the country.

Based on an extensive reading of local newspapers, it finds a near universal lack of preparation or panic or other signs of personal concern among those in the unaffected areas, despite extensive and potentially worrying coverage of the flu's progress. The normal reaction to news of the inexorable approach of a pandemic of uncertain virulence is anxiety and action. The Spanish flu produced neither in the uninfected areas for a month.

The most likely reason appears to be cognitive inertia—the tendency of existing beliefs or habits of thought to blind people to changed realities. This inertia grew out of the widespread understanding of flu as a seasonal visitor that while frequently unpleasant almost never killed the strong and otherwise healthy. This view of the flu was powerful enough that it blinded many in the unaffected regions to the threat for weeks even in the face of daily or near daily coverage of the pandemic's spread.

None of this is to suggest that we live our lives in a constant state of fear or hyper-awareness, only that we not lull ourselves into believing everything will be alright when the evidence suggests that preparing, or evacuating, or taking some kind of action is the smart thing to do.

My personal bent towards preparedness undoubtedly stems from my past experiences.

I grew up in Florida during the 1950s and 1960s at a time of heightened hurricane activity
I experienced the Cuban Missile Crisis up close and personal
I became an EMT, and then a Paramedic, in the early 1970s
I spent 15 years of my life living aboard boats, and cruising the waters of Florida.
And I spent 10 years going `back to the land’ in rural Missouri

All great teachers of impermanence of life and property, the unpredictability of future events, and the importance of being prepared to deal with whatever comes down the pike (see The Making Of A Prepper).

Over the years - whether at sea, in the backwoods, or in the back of my ambulance - I’ve enjoyed the peace of mind that comes from knowing I was reasonably prepared to deal with just about anything.

Over six decades I’ve learned one overriding lesson; Preparing is easy. It’s worrying that’s hard

Lest you think this is simply my message, I would invite you to visit: