#13,504
For the past 20 hours or so the major computer models (GFS & EURO) have been hinting at a slowdown near the coast, followed by a tendency to slide further south. While not set in stone, that possibility is now reflected in the 5am advisory, and the NHC may need to move Hurricane warnings further down the coast.
It all boils down to timing; when (and if) Florence begins its southwesterly turn. From the NHC 5am Discussion.
The track guidance is in good agreement through the first couple of days of the forecast period, and the NHC track forecast again brings the center of the hurricane very close to the coasts of North and South Carolina within 48 hours.
Later in the period, the dynamical model spread increases but most of the guidance has continued its southward shift, and now take Florence southwestward near the coast of South Carolina by day 4. The NHC track has been adjusted southward at days 4 and 5, and is a little north of the consensus out of respect for continuity, however, the GFS, ECMWF, and the ECMWF ensemble mean is south of the NHC track forecast, and additional southward adjustment may be warranted in future advisories.
It is important for users to realize that significant impacts extend well away from the center of Florence, and serious hazards such as a dangerous storm surge and flooding rains will cover a large area regardless of exactly where the center moves.
Simply put, some people who thought they might be in the clear to the south of yesterday's forecast could find themselves back in play with this storm. Which is why the NHC warns the public not to focus too heavily on the exact track, and to be prepared even before hurricane season begins.
Key Messages from the 5am advisory read:
Stay tuned, and if you live anywhere in the Southeastern United States (including Georgia & North Florida), continue to monitor the NHC advisories and statements from the NWS and your local office of Emergency Management.
If you are on Twitter, you should follow @FEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, and @ReadyGov.For more on preparing for the storm, you may wish to revisit:
#Natlprep: No Time Like The Present To Prepare
