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| Credit FAO |
#14,141
Yesterday the OIE announced that Laos has become the fifth Asian country to report the arrival of African Swine Fever (Please. . . don't call it `flu') since the first of the year, with 7 outbreaks reported in southern Saravane province (see below).
We also have the FAO's most recent ASF Situation report for Asia (excerpts below), which shows Vietnam's losses have grown by 900,000 pigs in the last 3 weeks, while China's numbers remain unchanged during the same period.
Curiously, China's MOA website (http://www.moa.gov.cn/) has been offline or unreachable for more than 24 hours.Some excerpts from a much longer FAO update follow. Click the link to read it in its entirety. When you return, I'll have a postscript.
ASF situation in Asia update
20 June 2019, 12:00 hours; Rome
The next update will be issued in 27 June 2019
Overview
Hazard: African swine fever (ASF) is a fatal animal disease affecting pigs and wild boars with up to 100% case fatality rate.
Affected provinces: China: Anhui, Heilongjiang, Henan, Jilin, Liaoning, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanxi, Yunnan, Hunan and Guizhou, Hubei, Jiangxi, Fujian, Sichuan, Shaanxi, Qinghai, Guangdong, Gansu, Shandong and Hainan Provinces, Tianjin, Chongqing, Shanghai and Beijing Municipalities, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia Hui, Guangxi Zhuang, Xinjiang Uygur and Tibet (Xizang) Autonomous Regions and Hong Kong Special Administrative Region. Mongolia: Bulgan, Darkhan-Uul, Dundgovi, Orkhon, Selenge, Töv Provinces and Ulaanbaatar.
Viet Nam: Hung Yen, Thai Binh, Thanh Hoa, Ha Nam, Hai Duong, Dien Bien, Hoa Binh, Thai Nguyen, Quang Ninh, Ninh Binh, Nam Dinh, Bac Kan, Lang Son, Nghe An, Son La, Bac Ninh, Thua Thien-Hue, Bac Giang, Lai Chau, Quang Tri, Vinh Phuc, Cao Bang, Khanh Hoa, Hau Giang, Vinh Long, Dong Nai, Phu Thọ, Yen Bai, Binh Phuoc, Lao Cai, An Giang, Ha Tinh, Quang Nam, Dak Nong, Kien Giang, Soc Trang, Dong Thap, Gia Lai, Ha Giang, Tuyen Quang, Binh Duong, Ca Mau, Quang Ngai, Dak Lak, Tien Giang, Kon Tum, Bac Lieu, Bình Định, Tra Vinh, Binh Thuan, Quang Binh, Long An, Phu Yen Provinces, Hai Phong, Ha Noi, Can Tho, Da Nang and Ho Chi Minh Cities.
Cambodia: Ratanakiri Province.
Democratic People’s Republic of Korea: Chagang-Do.
Lao People’s Democratic Republic: Salavane Province.
Situation update
Lao People’s Democratic Republic
The Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry confirmed the occurrence of the first ASF outbreak in Toumlan District, Salavane Province on 20 June 2019.
Democratic People’s Republic of Korea
The Ministry of Agriculture confirmed its first ASF outbreak in Chagang-Do occurred on 23 May 2019 [reference].
China
Since the China Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) confirmed its first African swine fever (ASF) outbreak in Liaoning Province on 3 August 2018, 139 ASF outbreaks detected in 32 Provinces/Autonomous Regions/Municipalities/Special Administrative Region. More than 1,133,000 pigs have been culled in an effort to halt further spread.
Mongolia
Since its first report on 15 January 2019, 11 outbreaks in 6 provinces and in Ulaanbaatar have been reported, involving 105 farms/households. More than 3,115 pigs, more than 10 percent of the total pig population in Mongolia, have died/been destroyed due to the ASF outbreaks.
Viet Nam
Since the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) confirmed its ASF outbreaks on 19 February 2019, a total of 58 provinces/cities reported outbreaks, more than 2,600,000 pigs have been culled.
(Continue . . . )
Cambodia
Since the Ministry of Agriculture Forestry and Fisheries confirmed its first ASF outbreak in Som Kaninh village, Som Thom commune, O Ya Dav District, Ratanakiri Province on 2 April 2019, more than 2400 pigs have died or been culled.
While ASF doesn't pose a direct threat to human health, it is devastating to pigs and pork producers, and its continued spread in China and across Asia could compromise already fragile economies, and food security, in many regions.
Despite limited reporting by China's MOA - which admits to just over 1.13 million pigs lost over the past 11 months - many experts and organizations have crafted their own estimates of China's ASF losses.
- The FAO's Food Outlook Report - estimated China's losses closer to 20%; roughly 80 to 100 million pigs.
- A Rabobank Research report released last April estimated that between 150-200 million Chinese pigs have already been lost to ASF, and that China's pig production will drop 30% in 2019.
- Other estimates (see ASF China: Global agribusiness suffers; estimates vary) propose even greater losses.
The juggernaut of African Swine Fever continues to roll across Asia, and countries like South Korea, Thailand, and Myanmar are working furiously to try to prevent its introduction.
Given ASF's track record in Eastern Europe and Russia over the past decade (see DEFRA: ASF Outbreak Assessment #21 - Eastern Europe), and in Asia since August of last year, their success is far from guaranteed.
