#14,284
Mariner’s Poem On Hurricanes
June too soon.
July stand by.
August look out you must.
September remember.
October all over.
- Published in “Weather Lore” by R. Inwards in 1898
In a little over a week we've gone from a relatively quiet July and August in the Tropical Atlantic to a record setting Hurricane in the Bahamas and no fewer than 5 `tropical features' on the NHC's 5-Day outlook.
While Hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th, the most active time falls from late August to late October, meaning we've got roughly 2 months of enhanced activity ahead of us.
Hurricane Dorian, while greatly diminished in strength from its peak of 3 days ago, continues to chug northwest just offshore of Northeast Florida, and appears headed for the Carolinas.
While Florida, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola all dodged a bullet with Dorian, the Bahamas took a historic pounding. Those of us thanking their lucky stars, however, need to temper that relief with the knowledge that the Atlantic Tropical season is just getting started.
Early season storms tend to form in the Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean, but as ocean temperatures rise late in summer, and winds aloft become more favorable, hurricanes tend to form farther to the east, giving them more time grow before encountering land (see below).
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| Credit NOAA’s Tropical Cyclone Climatology page. |
For more than 50 million Americans living in coastal areas, hurricanes and their byproducts (flooding, tornadoes, lightning) are probably their greatest natural disaster threat.
By early October, the hurricane spawning grounds retract again (see below), 2018's Category 5 Hurricane Michael, 2012's Superstorm Sandy, and 2005's Hurricane Wilma all remind us that the danger remains.
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| Credit NOAA’s Tropical Cyclone Climatology page. |
If you live anywhere where in `hurricane country' and haven't done so already, now is a good time to visit NOAA's Weather-Ready Nation 2019's Hurricane Preparedness week web page, and decide what you need to do now to keep you, your family, and your property safe during the coming tropical season.
There are some excellent internet hurricane resources online, but the two I heartily recommend are Mark Sudduth's excellent YouTube channel and http://hurricanetrack.com/ - and for true weather nerds like me - Mike's https://spaghettimodels.com/ is a daily stop.
But your primary source of
forecast information should always be the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida.
These are the real experts, and the only ones you should rely on to track and forecast the storm.If you are on Twitter, you should also follow @FEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific and @ReadyGov and of course take direction from your local Emergency Management Office.
With Dorian, we've been forewarned. It is now our job to be forearmed.
