#14,498
The recent uptick in Saudi MERS cases continues with the 5th case reported thus far in Epi week #44 - making this the busiest week since May (epi week #22), when 6 cases were reported.
Today's case involves a 58 y.o. male from Riyadh, listed as `primary' with unknown camel exposure.
Although there's considerable variation from year-to-year, there does appear to be some degree of seasonality to MERS cases. Last summer, in The Global Seasonal Occurrence of MERS-CoV, we looked at a study that pegged June as the top month of the year for MERS cases (while January was the lowest).
The June spike appears to be the crescendo of an increase that begins in February and rises steadily for the next 4 months, possibly linked to camel calving season (see EID Journal: MERS Coronavirus In A Saudi Dromedary Herd), but the reasons behind the dramatic drop in MERS cases in July - followed by a resurgence in August - is less apparent.
These are averages, and not every year follows this pattern. This year, for example, we saw more cases in July (n=9) than in August (n=6).
We might expect - based on the above chart - to see a decrease in MERS activity over the next couple of months, but the August-September-October curve this year has been inverted (rising), and so I wouldn't make any large bets on it.
Stay tuned.
