Sunday, March 08, 2020

South Korea Surpasses 7,000 COVID-19 Cases



#15,055

Although South Korea just blew past 6,000 confirmed infections on Friday morning, we are seeing a noticeable slowdown in new cases, which may indicate they are starting to get a handle on their epidemic. With an extended incubation period, however, it is far too soon to declare the tide has turned.
Overnight 367 new cases were reported, and the death toll climbed to 50. 
After a shaky start, South Korea declared `war' on the virus, and since then has aggressively tested, and isolated cases.  Potentially exposed individuals have been quarantined, and social distancing along with hand and respiratory hygiene has been heavily promoted.

While South Korea leads with the most confirmed COVID-19 cases outside of Mainland China, they have managed to keep their mortality rate remarkably low (0.6%).  As deaths often occur 7 to 10 days (or more) after hospitalization,  that percentage will likely rise over time.
The take-away from all of this is that strong mitigation efforts can help reduce the spread of COVID-19, and may even put a dent in its CFR.  It may not stop an epidemic, but it can soften its impact. 
Whether other nations will find the political will, and can get the cooperation of their citizens, early enough in an outbreak in order to mount a similar response is the $64 question.

Today's update from the South Korean CDC, along with some epidemiological notes:

○ In Daegu, 46 * patients have been confirmed from February 13 to present in the apartment (Hanmaeum Apartment) in Dalseo-gu, and the epidemiological investigation is underway. Of the 140 residents, 80 residents were negative and 14 people are being tested.
 ○ In Gyeonggi-do, 13 * confirmed patients were diagnosed in medical institution (Bundang Jesaeng Hospital) in Seongnam-si, and all 6 hospitalized and discharged patients were admitted to the same ward. .
    * Of the 13 confirmed patients, 4 inpatients, 2 discharge patients, 6 workers, and 1 spouse of the inpatient 
  -Inpatients who had contact with a confirmatory patient who are in need of hospitalization are currently in a single room quarantine. Patients who have contact with the confirmable patient but are able to be discharged are under self-containment measures if the corona test results are negative. 
□ As the central defense countermeasures headquarters continues to identify cases of group outbreaks centering on medical institutions, social welfare facilities, and religious facilities, the local governments have asked each local government to have an organic cooperative system with the relevant institution.
 ○ Local governments urged them to establish and maintain an emergency contact system with group facilities and to be prepared to ensure rapid epidemiological investigations and quarantine measures in the event of a situation.
 ○ Each facility was required to appoint its own 'symptom reporters' and to receive prompt reports in case of suspicious symptoms of workers or users so that they can be promptly reported and acted through the emergency contact system with the local health authorities.
  -Facility workers are advised to strictly comply with personal hygiene (hand washing, coughing etiquette, wearing masks), stopping work when fever or respiratory symptoms occur, refraining from contact with others and going out of home It was recommended to observe the course for three to four days.
  -If necessary, facility managers should check fever or respiratory symptoms twice a day for facility workers and users, and proactively guide and manage employees or users with suspicious symptoms in order not to go to work or use. In addition, it was asked to be careful not to disadvantage the employee or user.