Friday, March 13, 2020

UK CMO: Moving From Contain To Delay Phase On COVID-19



#15,090

Invariably, as each country finds that COVID-19 is spreading widely in their communities, local public health efforts will move away from containment and towards delaying - or mitigating the effects - of their epidemic.
Some containment activities may continue, but the more entrenched the virus becomes in a community, other priorities take precedent. 
The goal - particularly when we are still in the winter respiratory season - is to delay the peak of the first pandemic wave until summer, when hospitals are better able to cope with an influx of cases.


We also hope to `flatten the curve', so that the number of people sick at the same time can be reduced, and therefore limit the impact on healthcare facilities (see Community Pandemic Mitigation's Primary Goal : Flattening The Curve) and absenteeism from the workplace.
While the WHO urges all countries to continue with containment efforts - even after moving to mitigation - each country must makes their own decision based on their own situation, and resources.  
Yesterday the CMO (Chief Medical Officer) of England,  Professor Chris Whitty, announced the decision to move to what they call the DELAY phase.

Testing will be reserved for seriously ill, hospitalized cases.  Those who are symptomatic - but not seriously ill - will stay home.  The UK will gradually phase in stricter social distancing recommendations in the weeks to come.

First the press release from the UK Government, then a video explaining in greater detail how the UK will deal with this pandemic.

Press release
COVID-19: government announces moving out of contain phase and into delay
The government has announced that we are moving out of the contain phase and into delay, in response to the ongoing coronavirus outbreak.
Published 12 March 2020
From:Department of Health and Social Care

The government has announced that we are moving out of the contain phase and into delay, in response to the ongoing coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak.
The UK Chief Medical Officers have now raised the risk to the UK from moderate to high.
As per the current advice, the most important thing individuals can do to protect themselves remains washing their hands more often, for at least 20 seconds, with soap and water. Make sure you cough or sneeze into a tissue, put it in a bin and wash your hands.
We are asking anyone who shows certain symptoms to self-isolate for 7 days, regardless of whether they have travelled to affected areas. This means we want people to stay at home and avoid all but essential contact with others for 7 days from the point of displaying mild symptoms, to slow the spread of infection.
The symptoms are:
  • a high temperature (37.8 degrees and above)
  • a new, continuous cough
You do not need to call NHS 111 to go into self-isolation. If your symptoms worsen during home isolation or are no better after 7 days contact NHS 111 online at 111.nhs.uk.
If you have no internet access, you should call NHS 111. For a medical emergency dial 999.
In the coming weeks, we will be introducing further social distancing measures for older and vulnerable people, asking them to self-isolate regardless of symptoms.
If we introduce this next stage too early, the measures will not protect us at the time of greatest risk but could have a huge social impact. We need to time this properly, continue to do the right thing at the right time, so we get the maximum effect for delaying the virus. We will clearly announce when we ask the public to move to this next stage.
Our decisions are based on careful modelling.
We will only introduce measures that are supported by clinical and scientific evidence.

One of the best resources I've found on COVID-19 comes from Dr. John Campbell's youtube channel. Campbell, who is a PhD, is a retired Nurse Teacher and A and E nurse based in England, and is the author of several nursing textbooks. 

Over the past couple of months, he's done a remarkable job producing 1 or 2 videos a day, going over the latest COVID-19 news, and breaking down the latest studies.  

In today's video (below), he goes into great detail over what the UK expects to see in the coming months from this first pandemic wave, and the UK government's plan to meet it. 

 Highly recommended. As are all of his daily COVID-19 vlogs.