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| AFD Blog on 12/30/2019 |
#15,346
One hundred and eighty mornings ago I awoke (at 2am) and found a Skype message from Sharon Sanders of FluTrackers alerting me to several strange, and admittedly worrisome media reports from China of an unidentified respiratory outbreak in Wuhan City.
Within 48 hours I'd written 6 blogs on the topic, and FluTrackers had amassed scores of reports. But despite our early concerns, none of us could have predicted how dramatically the world was about to change.
And that is the crux of the matter. Obscure events, often occurring in far off places, can have a huge global impact. Next time, it could be a new avian flu subtype emerging in Egypt, or perhaps an arenavirus jumping from rodents to humans in South America, or a swine influenza virus circulating in pigs in the American Midwest bridging the species barrier.
The CDC maintains an IRAT List of 19 influenza viruses with pandemic potential, 16 of which have been added in the past 9 years (see CDC Adds 3 Novel Flu Viruses To IRAT List). This list contains - while not all encompassing - 15 avian viruses, 3 swine variant viruses, and 1 canine virus.
Although social distancing may limit opportunities for some of these viruses to jump to humans while COVID-19 rages, there are no guarantees that we won't see another major infectious disease crisis before our current pandemic has ended.
Meanwhile the COVID-19 pandemic continues to defy early expectations. Exactly what that portends for this fall and winter remains uncertain, but its economic, societal, and public health impacts are only likely to grow in the months ahead.
To this we can add a predicted overly active Atlantic Hurricane season, the potential for other natural disasters (earthquakes, wildfires, floods, etc.) both here and around the world, continued uncertainties in the global supply chain (see CIDRAP: Growing Drug Shortages Due To COVID-19), high unemployment and our pernicious and unresolved global economic crisis.
It's no wonder our collective stress levels are through the roof.
While I can't predict which shoe will be the next to drop, the world is too big of a place not to provide a constant supply of new threats. Most will be local, some will be regional, and a few may become global.
The only certainty is . . . the more they pile up, the less effectively governments and relief agencies around the world will be to respond.
The takeaway from the last six months is now - perhaps more than at any time in our lifetimes - we need to be building individual, family, and community resilience. And for most families, that means being prepared to deal with the unexpected.
While that archetype undoubtedly exists, most `preppers' - like myself - gear up to deal with more reasonable, and more survivable, scenarios like hurricanes, floods, blizzards, and yes, even pandemics.
And personally, over the past 3 years, I'm 2 for 4 on that short list.
Long time readers of this blog know that I - like FEMA and Ready.gov - heavily promote personal and family preparedness year round. And given the challenges facing the world right now - and what may come in the months ahead - investing in some family preparedness this summer may be cheap insurance.
- A battery operated NWS Emergency Radio to find out what was going on, and to get vital instructions from emergency officials
- A decent first-aid kit, so that you can treat injuries
- Enough non-perishable food and water on hand to feed and hydrate your family (including pets) for the duration (10 to 14 days minimum)
- A way to provide light when the grid is down.
- A way to cook safely without electricity
- A way to purify or filter water
- A way to stay cool (fans) or warm when the power is out.
- A small supply of cash to use in case credit/debit machines are not working
- An emergency plan, including meeting places, emergency out-of-state contact numbers, a disaster buddy, and in case you must evacuate, a bug-out bag
- Spare supply of essential prescription medicines that you or your family may need
- A way to entertain yourself, or your kids, during a prolonged blackout
Nearly six weeks ago, in Why Preparing For This Year's Hurricane Season Will Be `Different', we looked at some of the challenges of preparing for a hurricane, or any other disaster, during a pandemic.
While store shelves are better stocked today, it wouldn't take more than a whiff of a new threat - like an approaching storm - to see them wiped clean again. And queuing up with hundreds of other shoppers during a pandemic in order to prepare for a new threat is a recipe for infection.
A week ago, a Bankrate poll was released which asked Americans' what their biggest financial regret was.
The coronavirus pandemic has hit Americans hard, and a new Bankrate survey says Americans’ top financial regret is not having enough emergency savings to withstand the crisis.
The survey shows that of Americans with financial regrets, the biggest regret is a lack of emergency savings, which was noted by 23 percent of respondents. But when it comes to their biggest financial priority going forward, Americans are focused on paying down debt (22 percent), followed by saving more for emergencies (17 percent).
Despite a long history of periodic recessions - and two economic crashes in living memory - they hadn't prepared for an economic downturn. They assumed that today would be pretty much the same as yesterday, and that tomorrow would be the same as today.
Preppers, on the other hand, expect - and prepare for - the unexpected.
Now is the time, while store shelves are reasonably stocked, and the economy has opened a little, to ask yourself what your biggest regret would be a year from now if we get blindsided by another disaster or crisis during this pandemic - or if COVID-19's 2nd wave proves to be much larger than the first.
What can you do today to mitigate the hardships - or to protect your family - during the uncertain months ahead?
Do you have an emergency plan or a first aid kit? Is your pantry lean, or can you and your family get by for a few weeks without visiting a grocery store? Can you stay cool in the summer, and warm in the winter, if the power is out for days or weeks? Do you have a disaster buddy?
Looking back over the past 6 months, it's hard imagine what the next 180 days may bring. Hopefully better times. But hope is not a plan.
While you can't plan for every contingency, and most of us are on a very tight budget, anything you can do in advance to prepare for the next disaster or crisis will be money well spent. But the operative words are `in advance'.
Some recent preparedness blogs you may have missed include:
My New (And Improved) Solar Battery Project (for CPAP)
My New Solar Power System (Updated For 2020)
The Natural Disaster Most People Don't Think About
What Other Threats May Come
CDC: Updated COVID-19 Checklist For Older Persons
Hurricane Preparedness Week: Day 7 - Complete A Written Plan
