CDC Infographic
#15,255
Nearly two months ago, in The Most Predicted Global Crisis of the 21st Century, we looked at more than a dozen years of (mostly unheeded) warnings that another severe pandemic was all but `inevitable'.
Not only was another pandemic considered a matter of when, not if, it had been routinely placed at the top of nearly every global, regional, and national threat list for years.In December of 2012 the U.S. National Intelligence Council released a report called "Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds" that tried to anticipate the global shifts that will likely occur over the next two decades (see Black Swan Events).
Number one on their hit parade?
Global Trends 2030's potential Black Swans
1. Severe Pandemic
"No one can predict which pathogen will be the next to start spreading to humans, or when or where such a development will occur," the report says. "Such an outbreak could result in millions of people suffering and dying in every corner of the world in less than six months."
In 2014, the U.S. Director of National Intelligence declared An Influenza Pandemic As A National Security Threat, writing: No one can predict which pathogen will be the next to spread to humans, or when or where such a development will occur, but humans will continue to be vulnerable to pandemics, most of which will probably originate in animals.
The U.S. isn't alone in these concerns. Every couple of years the UK reassesses their threat landscape, and releases an updated CIVIL RISKS REGISTER. In the 2015 Civil Risks Register, they placed a severe Pandemic at the very top of their worry list.
Two years later, in 2017 they published a new update, once again placing a pandemic at the top of their list of greatest concerns (see Threat Matrix below).
In 2018, the UK released an updated National Security Capability Review (NSCR) which (among other things) emphasized the greatest threats facing the UK over the next 5 years.
Diseases and natural hazards affecting the UK.
One or more major hazards can be expected to materialise in the UK in every five year period. The most serious are pandemic influenza, national blackout and severe flooding. We published the latest edition of the National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies in September 2017. It provides an assessment of the likelihood and potential impact of a range of different civil emergency risks that may directly affect the UK over the next five years.
To these warnings we can add scores of other clarion calls, including the Johns Hopkins tabletop exercises EVENT 201 in 2019, and CLADE X in 2018, that vividly portrayed many of the pandemic challenges the world faces today, and Dr. Michael Osterholm's book Deadliest Enemy: Our War Against Killer Germs.
Despite this cacophony of Cassandras, few listened - and even fewer in power acted - leaving the world unprepared and vulnerable to COVID-19.Another pandemic - perhaps even deadlier - is certainly a possibility, and something we should absolutely be preparing for. But there are other threats - both regional and global - that we have been warned about for years, that we need to prepare for seriously.
If we've learned anything from the past 3 months, it should be that we are in less control of our fate than we'd like to believe.
Hurricane season is just over two weeks away, wildfire season is heating up in the west, earthquakes and tsunamis can happen at any time, our sun is slowly emerging from solar minimum on its way towards its 11 year maximum, and viruses and bacteria continue to evolve and mutate.
Meanwhile, our infrastructure (power grid, water supplies, bridges, tunnels, etc.) is ageing and in disrepair (see ASCE report card on America’s infrastructure), and there are bad actors capable of wreaking havoc with cyber or other attacks on our power grid, water, supply, and communications systems.
And while many countries are re-opening their economies, we don't yet know what the long-term impacts from the virus, on the supply chain, or the global economy will be going forward.
And while many countries are re-opening their economies, we don't yet know what the long-term impacts from the virus, on the supply chain, or the global economy will be going forward.
I can't tell you which of these threats will loom large next, but it is a pretty good guess that millions of people will be forced to deal with a secondary threat before this COVID-19 pandemic is over.While we are understandably focused on dealing with COVID-19 right now, we can't afford to wait until this pandemic has passed before we prepare for the next crisis. And since we can't know exactly what threats we will face, we need to work on improving individual, family, community, and governmental All Hazards preparedness.
In 2013, the CDC produced the All-Hazards Preparedness Guide and their Emergency Response and Preparedness website provides tools for the whole community (e.g., individuals, families, communities, businesses, and jurisdictions) to use in order to prepare for a wide range of disasters.Every September I dedicate dozens of blogs to National Preparedness Month, but given the constraints of our current pandemic crisis - preparing is going to be more challenging than ever - and so I'm going to be talking about specific threats and all hazards preparedness throughout the summer.
My hope is that we can promote a newfound culture of preparedness - not only in this country - but around the world.If we don't, we run the very real risk of being caught flat footed once again, and the next time could be substantially worse than what we are dealing with today.
