Avian Flu Diary: Hurricane Season During COVID-19

# 15,296

Although June 1st is the official start to the Atlantic Hurricane season, we've already seen two named storms in May (Arthur & Bertha) - and if this morning's NHC tropical outlook proves correct - we may see a third later this week.

Normally, we don't see the third named storm of hurricane season until the second week of August. Whether it happens this week or not, the next storm will be named Cristobal.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/

From this morning's 2am NHC tropical outlook:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. The remnants of Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda are currently located inland near the Guatemala-Yucatan Border. This large disturbance is forecast to move slowly northward this morning, followed by a northwestward motion later today, and the center of the low pressure system could emerge over the southeastern Bay of Campeche by this evening.

If the remnants move back over water, environmental conditions appear conducive to support some development, and a new tropical depression could form while the system moves little through the middle of this week. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, heavy rainfall is likely to continue over portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, and western Honduras during the next few days. For additional information on the rainfall threat, see products from your national meteorological service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Long range forecast models are far from reliable - particularly this early in a system's development - but several suggest a tropical storm (or possibly a hurricane) could be roaming in the Gulf of Mexico late this week.

Interests from Texas to Florida should be keeping an eye on this evolving situation this week, and everyone along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts should be preparing for Busy 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Given our early start to the hurricane season, and our ongoing supply chain challenges, the time to prepare for this year's hurricane season is now.

As we discussed a few weeks ago, in Why Preparing For This Year's Hurricane Season Will Be `Different', our concurrent COVID-19 pandemic will complicate nearly every aspect of hurricane season, including evacuations, staying in shelters, and the time it will take to restore utilities and provide disaster relief after the storm.

The CDC offers several web pages on dealing with a hurricane during this COVID-19 pandemic, including:

Preparing for Hurricanes During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Español (Spanish)

(Excerpt)

Prepare for hurricane season

Understand that your planning may be different this year because of the need to protect yourself and others from COVID-19.

Give yourself more time than usual to prepare your emergency food, water, and medicine supplies. Home delivery is the safest choice for buying disaster supplies; however, that may not be an option for everyone. If in-person shopping is your only choice, take steps to protect your and others’ health when running essential errands.

Protect yourself and others when filling prescriptions by limiting in-person visits to the pharmacy. Sign up for mail order delivery or call in your prescription ahead of time and use drive-through windows or curbside pickup, if available.

Pay attention to local guidance about updated plans for evacuations and shelters, including potential shelters for your pets.

If you need to evacuate, prepare a “go kit” with personal items you cannot do without during an emergency. Include items that can help protect you and others from COVID-19, such as hand sanitizer, or bar or liquid soap if not available, and two cloth face coverings for each person. Face covers should not be used by children under the age of 2. They also should not be used by people having trouble breathing, or who are unconscious, incapacitated, or unable to remove the mask without assistance.

When you check on neighbors and friends, be sure to follow social distancing recommendations (staying at least 6 feet, about 2 arms’ length, from others) and other CDC recommendations to protect yourself and others.

If you need to go to a disaster shelter, follow CDC recommendations for staying safe and healthy in a public disaster shelter during the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Riding out a hurricane in a public shelter is far from ideal, even without a pandemic virus threat, but many people will have no safer alternative.

Suffice to say, if you can make any other arrangements - either staying in a motel, or at a friend or relatives' house (see my post on Disaster Buddies) - you will not only be more comfortable, you'll be safer as well.

The CDC offers the following advice about preparing to go to a community shelter (see Going to a Public Disaster Shelter During the COVID-19 Pandemic)

(EXCERPT)

Prepare to shelter

Know a safe place to shelter and have several ways to receive weather alerts.

Find out if your local public shelter is open, in case you need to evacuate your home and go there. Your shelter location may be different this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Follow guidance from your local officials on when and where to shelter.

Stay informed with weather alerts, such as National Weather Service cell phone alerts, NOAA Weather Radio, or (@NWS) Twitter alerts.

If you need to evacuate, prepare a “go kit” with personal items you cannot do without during an emergency. Include items that can help protect you and others from COVID-19, such as hand sanitizer, or bar or liquid soap if not available, and two cloth face coverings for each person. Face covers should not be used by children under the age of 2. They also should not be used by people having trouble breathing, or who are unconscious, incapacitated, or unable to remove the mask without assistance.

Make a plan and prepare a disaster kit for your pets. Find out if your disaster shelter will accept pets. Typically, when shelters accommodate pets, the pets are housed in a separate area from people.

Protect yourself and others while in a public shelter

Practice social distancing. Stay at least 6 feet (about 2 arms’ length) from other people outside of your household.

Follow CDC COVID-19 preventive actions—wash your hands often, cover coughs and sneezes, and follow shelter policies for wearing cloth face coverings. Avoid sharing food and drink with anyone if possible.

Follow disaster shelter policies and procedures designed to protect everyone in the shelter, particularly older adults (65 and older) and people of any age who have serious underlying medical conditions. These people are at higher risk for severe illness from COVID-19.

Avoid touching high-touch surfaces, such as handrails, as much as possible. If not possible, wash hands or use hand sanitizers containing 60% alcohol immediately after you touch these surfaces.

Keep your living area clean and disinfect frequently-touched items such as toys, cellphones, and other electronics.

If you feel sick when you arrive at the shelter or start to feel sick while sheltering, tell shelter staff immediately.

Help your children stay safe while in a public shelter

Teach and reinforce everyday preventive actions for keeping children healthy.

Make sure children aged 2 and older wear cloth face coverings. Face covers should not be used by children under the age of 2. They also should not be used by people having trouble breathing, or who are unconscious, incapacitated, or unable to remove the mask without assistance.

Be a good role model—if you wash your hands often, your children are more likely to do the same.

Watch your children to ensure they stay at least 6 feet away from anyone who is not in your household.

Watch your child for any signs of illness and tell shelter staff if your child may be ill.

Try to deal with the disaster calmly and confidently, as this can provide the best support for your children. Help children cope with emergencies.

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Hurricane season runs from today (June 1st) to the end of November, which means we could conceivably be dealing with one or more large evacuations and disaster recoveries over the next six months.