Avian Flu Diary: T.S. Gonzalo Forms In Atlantic, Watching GOM For Development

#15,375

By the last week of July, we normally are seeing our 1st or 2nd named storm of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. But this year, we are already at number 7; Gonzalo, which was promoted this morning by the National Hurricane Center to tropical storm status.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/

Although named systems have been in abundance since mid-May, none have reached hurricane status, and their impact on land has been limited. But with the heart of hurricane season still ahead, there are ample reasons to believe we'll see a very active August, September, and likely October.

Today the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Fl has their eyes on two systems. Tropical Storm Gonzalo, which looks like it will struggle once it gets into the Caribbean - and a disturbance expected to move slowly across the Gulf of Mexico towards Texas over the next 5 days.

Neither are currently viewed as posing a major threat to land, but both are indications that the tropical activity is starting to ramp up.

First stop, the upgrade announcement and 5 am forecast track for Gonzalo.

 

The second area the NHC is watching is watching is given a 50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days. For now, intensity models don't predict more than a tropical storm, but residents along the Texas and Northern Gulf of Mexico coastline should monitor this system.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALLTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS
National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020+

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Seven, located over the central tropical Atlantic.

1. A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, central and southern Florida, and western Cuba. Gradual development of this system is possible while it moves west-northwestward, and a tropical depression could form during the next few days. This disturbance is expected to move over the central Gulf today, and reach the northwestern Gulf on Thursday and Friday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today, if necessary.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

As we discussed back in May, in Why Preparing For This Year's Hurricane Season Will Be `Different', our concurrent COVID-19 pandemic will complicate nearly every aspect of hurricane season, including evacuations, staying in shelters, and the time it will take to restore utilities and provide disaster relief after the storm.

With the official forecast calling for an unusually active season (see NOAA's Busy 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook), it makes sense to make your plans and lay in your supplies now, before a tangible threat appears on the horizon.

So, if you haven't already done so, plan a visit to NOAA's Weather-Ready Nation 2019's Hurricane Preparedness week web page, and decide what you need to do now to keep you, your family, and your property safe during the coming tropical season.

While this blog, and many other internet sources (I follow Mark Sudduth's Hurricane Track, and Mike's Weather page), will cover this year's hurricane season. your primary source of forecast information should always be the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida.

These are the real experts, and the only ones you should rely on to track and forecast the storm.

If you are on Twitter, you should also follow @FEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific and @ReadyGov and of course take direction from your local Emergency Management Office.

For some recent blogs on preparing for hurricanes you may wish to revisit: