#15,518
Normally by the last week of October we can consider ourselves pretty much done with the Atlantic Hurricane season, even though the season runs through the end of November. There have been some notable exceptions - most recently - Super Storm Sandy which battered New Jersey and NYC on Halloween of 2012.
Storms that do form in late October tend to emerge from the western Caribbean, where water temperatures remain quite warm, and wind shear is low (see NOAA map below).
Which is exactly where our latest tropical threat - invest 95L - is currently brewing. The National Hurricane Center gives it a 90% of developing into a tropical depression within the next 5 days as it moves slowly north into the Gulf of Mexico.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Epsilon, located over the west-central Atlantic a couple of hundred miles northeast of Bermuda.
1. Satellite and surface observations indicate that a broad area of low pressure has redeveloped just south of Grand Cayman Island. Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to increase in organization, and environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for further development. A tropical depression will likely form during the next day or two while the low drifts toward the northwest or north. The system could move near western Cuba by Sunday and move slowly across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early next week.
Interests in western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and southern Florida should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Cuba, southern Florida, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas through the weekend and into early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
Early modeling is hinting (again) at the northern GOM - probably as a tropical storm - in 5 days time, although it is really too early to put much stock in these forecasts. Interests from the Bahamas to Louisiana should be monitoring the progress of this system.
Although the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane season already one for the record books (26 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, and still counting), it is sadly too soon for hurricane weary coastal residents to let down their guard.
